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Baseball
is terrific for the number of statistics that are tracked during
each game and they can paint a detailed picture of what to expect
from teams offensively and defensively nearly every game. One of
the most important systems we like to employ is called
Sabermetrics, a method of objectively analyzing MLB team
performance through statistics. Our system relies on collecting
statistical records to develop conclusions and make predictions
about teams and performance by measuring runs scored. Our studies
logically point to those teams, which are consistently solid and
have the offensive edge in run production.
By
incorporating a form of Sabermetrics, we have developed a system
called TPR, which calculates a team’s run production by
checking offensively, how hot or cold a team is over the past 7
games Vs. the entire season. One of the most important factors we
also utilize in our mathematical model is Regression to the
Mean. This is when teams have a powerful tendency to return to
the form in which they previously held. Whatever you call it, regression
to the mean is a fact of life and teams will always go back to
their norm in all sports. By combining our mathematical equations
and concepts into a powerful system, beating the bookmaker becomes an
easier task.
When using our Team
Projected Runs System in any given matchup, a play on the home
team is generated when the value is 1 or over, indicating the home
team will be expected to give up less runs then their opponents
and a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is
-1 or under, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more
runs.
|
Time
|
ROT
|
Matchup
|
Records
|
Team Proj Runs
|
|
8:05 PM ET
|
965
|
Texas
|
3-3 (1-2 V)
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|
|
|
966
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St. Louis
|
3-3 (2-1 H)
|
-0.6
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|
