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Power
Ratings and NFL Philosophy.
NFL
football betting looks easy, but nothing could be further from the
truth. In fact, many novice
handicappers
including professionals claim that beating the NFL spread is the
hardest thing to do in any sport! Make sure you gather all the information you
can get and educate yourself because
the oddsmakers
are no joke and are out to clean your wallet.
While
number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed
analysis is always an essential tool for pro football
handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which
compliments the "science". The successful handicapper
understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors
which follows should also be considered before making a play.
Conditions:
When
handicapping the NFL, many novice cappers tend to overlook some of
the nuts and bolts of handicapping a game. While there's a ton of
things to check out before selecting a game, we suggest that you
don't overlook the kicking game, injuries to offensive lineman,
turnovers and weather.
Good
vs. Bad Teams: One
way to uncover value is to find matchups in which a really good team is playing a really
bad team. The oddsmakers know that this type of match up gives the
perception that the weaker team is going to get crushed and sadly
enough the general betting public is going to jump all over the favorite in
the matchup regardless of whether they put out a line of -7 or
-10.
Parity: Have you noticed that dynasty's no longer exist
and that the National Football League has become very competitive
and that each week there are a number of upsets, both straight up
and against the spread?
Value
Betting: The sportsbooks are forced to put
out a line on every game on the weekend's NFL card. You however
are not required to wager on every game, and if you do there is a
strong possibility that you are going to get smacked around by the
books. This is the first step
to grabbing value. You just have to make sure that you only pull
the trigger if you think you've got a legitimate shot of hitting a
bulls-eye.
Explanation of Power Ratings:
True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any
handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of
statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR
calculations must be very responsive or they become old news
before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to
judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any
given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and
should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as
trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to
obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams
strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or
front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We
use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this
information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain
winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our
Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on
teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our ideas but
don't have the time or energy to execute your own, you can always
purchase our Prophet Zone software packages to get that winning
edge over the uninformed individual.
To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare
the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power
Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for
example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by
17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a
rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be
favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0
+ 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA.
Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make
sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.
1.
Always make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off.
2. Never play a game with a double digit line.
3. Pass games where the team with lower PR is laying pts. There
must be at least a 1 point differential
for a team with a higher PR to lay points.
4. We feel injuries
are irrelevant. The oddsmakers take into account injuries and the
publics perception of this and adjust the lines accordingly.
Teams must have played at least 2 games.
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