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Power
Ratings and NBA
Philosophy.
In
the NBA, there tends to be more sucker bets than in any
other sport. Beware of a point spread that looks too good
to be true because it probably is. Investigate the line,
check for injuries and any other pertinent information you
may be able to find to help determine why the line in
question looks so low. Often times the best way to deal
with a too good to be true spread is to go against your
gut feeling and bet the other way.
Find
out what the public is wagering on. If you find out
that the general public is hammering one side of the game
giving the other team no respect and the line is not
moving accordingly to balance the money, this is a good
time to consider being a contrarian and going the opposite
way. Always and we repeat Always check the
updated injury report. Nothing is worse than betting on a
team and finding out their point guard is on the pines
with an injury.
As
a general rule of thumb, try to avoid betting on
"good teams. Well, in theory,
good teams win straight up while bad teams cover. Bad
teams are given much less respect relative to the point
spread making for quite a few backdoor covers when good
teams and bad teams meet. This isn't to say that you
should bet on the underdog in every matchup, however, when
a really good team and a really bad team meet, there is
money to be made wagering on the bad team when picking
your spots. We're obviously not going to recommend such a
wager if the bad team is suffering injuries etc. Don't be
afraid to apply this method to bad road teams either. A
good solid team playing at home has no reason to crush a
crappy team (unless the good team lost to the bad team
straight up last time out) and this often makes for some
very nice barking dog covers.
Exercise
proper money management. No matter how much your down,
don't fire your whole bankroll at a game looking for that
game to bail you out of a bad situation. Bad handicapping
put you in this position, and only good handicapping will
bring you back. Keep unit sizes the same otherwise your
never going to get a chance at winning at basketball
betting.
Explanation of Power Ratings:
True Power Ratings are purely objective
and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key
to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is
involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become
old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows
us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in
any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool
and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as
trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to
obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams
strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or
front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We
use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this
information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain
winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our
Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on
teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but
don't have the time or energy, you can always
purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to
our premium sports advisory service and get that winning
edge over the uninformed handicapper.
To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare
the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power
Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for
example, a HOME team with a rating of 110 would be favored by 17
points, 110 + 3 = 113 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91 would be favored by 5
points over a HOME team having a rating of 83, 83 + 3 = 86.0. Our
preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HCA. Use the
Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there
is at least a 2 point overlay.
1.
Always make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off.
2. Never play a game with a double digit line.
3. Pass games where the team with lower PR is laying pts. There
must be at least a 1 point differential
for a team with a higher PR to lay points.
4. We feel injuries
are irrelevant. The oddsmakers take into account injuries and the
publics perception of this and adjusts the lines accordingly.
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