Power Ratings and NBA Philosophy.

In the NBA, there tends to be more sucker bets than in any other sport. Beware of a point spread that looks too good to be true because it probably is. Investigate the line, check for injuries and any other pertinent information you may be able to find to help determine why the line in question looks so low. Often times the best way to deal with a too good to be true spread is to go against your gut feeling and bet the other way.  

Find out what the public is wagering on. If you find out that the general public is hammering one side of the game giving the other team no respect and the line is not moving accordingly to balance the money, this is a good time to consider being a contrarian and going the opposite way. Always and we repeat Always check the updated injury report. Nothing is worse than betting on a team and finding out their point guard is on the pines with an injury.

As a general rule of thumb, try to avoid betting on "good teams. Well, in theory, good teams win straight up while bad teams cover. Bad teams are given much less respect relative to the point spread making for quite a few backdoor covers when good teams and bad teams meet. This isn't to say that you should bet on the underdog in every matchup, however, when a really good team and a really bad team meet, there is money to be made wagering on the bad team when picking your spots. We're obviously not going to recommend such a wager if the bad team is suffering injuries etc. Don't be afraid to apply this method to bad road teams either. A good solid team playing at home has no reason to crush a crappy team (unless the good team lost to the bad team straight up last time out) and this often makes for some very nice barking dog covers.

Exercise proper money management. No matter how much your down, don't fire your whole bankroll at a game looking for that game to bail you out of a bad situation. Bad handicapping put you in this position, and only good handicapping will bring you back. Keep unit sizes the same otherwise your never going to get a chance at winning at basketball betting.  

Explanation of Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110 would be favored by 17 points, 110 + 3 = 113 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83, 83 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HCA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay. 

1. Always make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off.
2. Never play a game with a double digit line.
3. Pass games where the team with lower PR is laying pts. There must be at least a 1 point differential for a team with a higher PR to lay points.
4.  We feel injuries are irrelevant. The oddsmakers take into account injuries and the publics perception of this and adjusts the lines accordingly.