The average guy will look at a game and break it down comparing pitchers, comparing offense, maybe even going through a game position by position to see which team is better and more likely to win a game. But guess what? All of this work puts this bettor on the favorite 9 out of 10 times. You see the oddsmakers have already handicapped this game using the same general principles as the avid baseball fan. You will never beat baseball betting all favorites.

When it comes to handicapping baseball, no single factor gets more attention, or has more effect on the game, than the starting pitcher. A good pitcher can make his team look much better than they are, and pitching woes can make the most talented team look like your local high school team. Understanding pitchers, and assigning a reasonable value to them, is the key to making money on baseball. Unfortunately, the starting pitcher can also be a trap that can cost us a fortune. The challenge is in knowing when the starting pitcher is a good bet, and when he has been given too much weight.

Another potential problem area is what happens when the starting pitcher leaves the game. It is very rare to see a starter pitch a complete game, and any appearance more than six or seven innings seems increasingly to be an oddity. If you are evaluating the value in the game based on a comparison of the two starting pitchers then you may be making a costly mistake. Beyond the starting pitchers, you need to look at the bullpens of both teams and how they perform with every starting pitcher.

P-Power/T-Power - When Calculating the Pitcher Power the higher the Power Rating the better chances of winning his next outing. When utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 20 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If a pitcher is 20 points or more, higher then his opponent, we can presume he is going to pitch a better game then his opponent. It should be noted here the pitcher must have pitched at least 20 innings to be considered.

The next step is to see how well the pitcher does with his teams bullpen. When calculating the pitchers success with his bullpen, the higher the power rating the better the bullpen performs for that particular pitcher. When utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 100 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If the bullpen is 100 points or more, higher then his opponents, the bullpen is expected to perform better in that particular matchup.

Due Factor's - When calculating the pitchers due factor the lower the Due Factor the better his chances of winning his next outing. When utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 20 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If a pitcher is 20 points or more, lower then his opponent, we can presume he is going to pitch a better game then his opponent. It should be noted here the pitcher must have pitched at least 20 innings to be considered.

The next step is to see how well the pitcher does with his teams bullpen. When calculating the pitchers success with his bullpen, the lower the Due Factor the better the bullpen performs for that particular pitcher. When utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 100 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If the bullpen is 100 points or more, lower then his opponents, the bullpen is expected to perform better in that particular matchup.

If both pitching and team criteria above are met the team is considered for a one unit play. If just the pitching criteria is met the team is considered for a 1/2 unit play.

Predicted Runs - This system calculates the number of runs the starting pitcher and bullpen is expected to give up and should predominantly be used with road dogs if success is going to occur. Try to go against an opponents ace, particularly at home. Pitchers need at least 5 starts. Subtract both pitchers predicted runs and use a 2 run overlay.

One final thought, you should always avoid heavy favorites. One loss and BANG your in a hole. A loser on a -250 game means you’re down 2.5 units and that can take even the most astute baseball handicapper a good week or more to break even on. We have found that –130 should be your limit in selecting a team favorite. If you happen to win 2 out of 3 games you will still come out with a small monetary gain. We'd like to suggest that you look at games from the underdog point of view. Once you get used to it, it actually becomes fun and you'll never go back to eyeballing the overwhelming favorites ever again.