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The
average
guy will look at a game and break it down comparing pitchers,
comparing offense, maybe even going through a game position by
position to see which team is better and more likely to win a
game. But guess what? All of this work puts this bettor on the
favorite 9 out of 10 times. You see the oddsmakers have already
handicapped this game using the same general principles as the
avid baseball fan. You will never beat baseball betting all
favorites.
When it comes to
handicapping baseball, no single factor gets more attention, or
has more effect on the game, than the starting pitcher. A good
pitcher can make his team look much better than they are, and
pitching woes can make the most talented team look like your local
high school team. Understanding pitchers, and assigning a
reasonable value to them, is the key to making money on baseball.
Unfortunately, the starting pitcher can also be a trap that can
cost us a fortune. The challenge is in knowing when the starting
pitcher is a good bet, and when he has been given too much weight.
Another potential problem area is what happens when the
starting pitcher leaves the game. It is very rare to see a starter
pitch a complete game, and any appearance more than six or seven
innings seems increasingly to be an oddity. If you are evaluating
the value in the game based on a comparison of the two starting
pitchers then you may be making a costly mistake. Beyond the
starting pitchers, you need to look at the bullpens of both teams
and how they perform with every starting pitcher.
PR System - When calculating the pitchers
due factor the lower the power rating the better his chances of
winning his next outing. When
utilizing this method we have been
most successful testing our system when there is a 20 point differential or overlay as a
deciding factor. If a pitcher is 20 points or more, lower then his
opponent, we can presume he is going to pitch a better game then
his opponent. It should be noted here
the pitcher must have pitched at least 20 innings to be
considered.
The next step is to see how well
the pitcher does with his teams bullpen. When calculating the
pitchers success with his bullpen, the lower the power rating the better the
bullpen performs for that particular pitcher. When
utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 100 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If
the bullpen is 100 points or more, lower then his opponents, the
bullpen is expected to perform better in that particular matchup.
If both pitching and team
criteria above are met the team is considered for a one unit play.
If
just the pitching criteria is met the team is considered for a 1/2
unit play.
Predicted
Runs - This system calculates the number of runs the starting pitcher
and bullpen is
expected to give up and should predominantly be used with road dogs
if success is going to occur. Try to go against an opponents ace,
particularly at home. Pitchers need at least 5 starts. Subtract
both pitchers predicted runs and use a 2 run overlay.
One final thought, you should always avoid heavy favorites. One
loss and BANG your in a hole. A loser on a -250 game means
you’re down 2.5 units and that can take even the most astute
baseball handicapper a good week or more to break even on. We have
found that –130 should be your limit in selecting a team
favorite. If you happen to win 2 out of 3 games you will still
come out with a small monetary gain. We'd like to suggest that you
look at games from the underdog point of view. Once you get used
to it, it actually becomes fun and you'll never go back to
eyeballing the overwhelming favorites ever again.
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