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You would be hard pressed to find any successful professional
handicapper who does not have a definable bankroll, a season game
plan to achieve profits and a clear understanding of finding an
edge and getting value. To get an edge you need to develop a
system or method for guiding you. Generally, Power Ratings
is one of many tools that can provide such insight. In essence you
create your own line by manipulating data so you can find a game
in which your methods indicate that there is an edge to one side
or another.
Finding a valid method that meets your style takes trial and error.
As with most statistical methods you will need a large enough
sampling of games to create a valid projection. Some pitching-only
based systems may work well as early as May when a pitcher has
completed 15 or more starts.
The
Home/Away Pitcher and Team Power Ratings provide here is a season
to date snap shot of pitcher performance and how the team supports
him. Used with current pitcher form and team streaks it can
lay the foundation for developing an eye for an edge.
If
value in the H/A-PP DIF (Pitcher Power) column is positive, then the home team
starting pitcher is superior. The higher this value is the better
the quality of the starting pitcher. To the contrary, if this
value is negative, then the home team starting pitcher is
inferior. We can apply the same idea to the team power rating. A
positive value indicates the team supports the starting pitcher,
whereas a negative value, the team hurts the starting pitcher. The
H/A-TP DIF (Team Power) is an indication of how the team supports
the starting pitcher. A positive value indicates the team supports
the starting pitcher whereas a negative value indicates he gets
very little support.
|
Team
|
Pitcher
|
H/A-IP
|
H/A-PP
|
H/A-PP-DIF
|
H/A-TP
|
H/A-TP-DIF
|
|
NYM
|
R.A. Dickey
|
81.0
|
59.2
|
|
227.6
|
|
|
WAS
|
Livan Hernandez
|
95.0
|
39.2
|
-20.0
|
261.3
|
33.7
|
|
BAL
|
Brad Bergesen
|
59.1
|
19.0
|
|
57.1
|
|
|
NYY
|
Ivan Nova
|
5.2
|
-51.9
|
-71.0
|
-259.6
|
-316.7
|
|
CLE
|
Josh Tomlin
|
24.1
|
52.8
|
|
263.9
|
|
|
ANA
|
Scott Kazmir
|
46.2
|
27.8
|
-24.9
|
61.8
|
-202.0
|
|
CWS
|
John Danks
|
82.2
|
58.8
|
|
316.5
|
|
|
DET
|
Jeremy Bonderman
|
80.0
|
77.0
|
18.3
|
495.3
|
178.8
|
|
FLA
|
Andrew Miller
|
4.0
|
-47.0
|
|
-94.0
|
|
|
PHI
|
Cole Hamels
|
94.1
|
103.8
|
150.8
|
519.1
|
613.1
|
|
ATL
|
Derek Lowe
|
75.0
|
33.6
|
|
103.4
|
|
|
PIT
|
Zach Duke
|
81.2
|
53.3
|
19.7
|
228.6
|
125.2
|
|
TEX
|
Derek Holland
|
12.2
|
54.5
|
|
108.9
|
|
|
TOR
|
Marc Rzepczynski
|
15.0
|
22.1
|
-32.4
|
110.3
|
1.3
|
|
TB
|
Matt Garza
|
93.1
|
46.3
|
|
231.7
|
|
|
BOS
|
Tim Wakefield
|
72.2
|
55.4
|
9.0
|
130.3
|
-101.4
|
|
HOU
|
Brett Myers
|
106.1
|
54.9
|
|
205.7
|
|
|
CHC
|
Randy Wells
|
96.1
|
80.7
|
25.9
|
353.1
|
147.4
|
|
STL
|
Jaime Garcia
|
71.1
|
55.1
|
|
339.3
|
|
|
MLW
|
Chris Capuano
|
18.1
|
66.0
|
10.8
|
180.0
|
-159.4
|
|
KC
|
Zack Greinke
|
91.0
|
91.4
|
|
211.0
|
|
|
MIN
|
Brian Duensing
|
48.1
|
113.6
|
22.2
|
772.4
|
561.4
|
|
CIN
|
Bronson Arroyo
|
102.0
|
59.6
|
|
437.1
|
|
|
COL
|
Aaron Cook
|
58.0
|
18.9
|
-40.7
|
113.5
|
-323.5
|
|
SF
|
Barry Zito
|
81.2
|
54.0
|
|
231.3
|
|
|
ARZ
|
Daniel Hudson
|
27.2
|
159.5
|
105.6
|
797.6
|
566.3
|
|
SEA
|
Luke French
|
28.0
|
9.4
|
|
18.9
|
|
|
OAK
|
Gio Gonzalez
|
83.1
|
58.7
|
49.2
|
406.2
|
387.3
|
|
LA
|
Chad Billingsley
|
80.0
|
74.5
|
|
372.5
|
|
|
SD
|
Cory Luebke
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
|
