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College Football: Team Power Ratings for week 6, 2014 Season

Power Ratings and NCAAF Philosophy

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football handicapping from NFL handicapping. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys," who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced handicappers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line, and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college football handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.

Key Numbers: Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL games.

Blowouts: We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Other coaches feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college "O/U" numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

Personnel: It's also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.

Injuries: By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as "doubtful" have played while those regarded as "probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football handicapping.

The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. Clearly, understanding the differences between college football handicapping and NFL handicapping is essential to winning.

Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.

Team Name

Final H PR

Final A PR

Final Overall PR

AIR FORCE

89.5

88.0

88.5

AKRON

80.5

93.0

86.5

ALABAMA

122.0

127.5

124.5

ARIZONA

107.0

97.0

102.0

ARIZONA STATE

110.5

107.5

109.0

ARKANSAS

96.5

97.0

96.5

ARKANSAS STATE

102.0

100.0

101.0

ARMY

91.5

83.0

87.0

AUBURN

105.5

108.5

107.0

BALL STATE

101.5

101.0

101.0

BAYLOR

122.0

111.5

116.5

BOISE STATE

108.0

107.5

107.5

BOSTON COLLEGE

98.5

91.5

95.0

BOWLING GREEN

100.5

102.5

101.5

BUFFALO

90.5

96.5

93.5

BYU

105.5

114.0

109.5

CALIFORNIA

87.5

88.5

88.0

CENTRAL FLORIDA

106.5

110.5

108.5

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

85.0

88.5

86.5

CINCINNATI

107.0

105.0

106.0

CLEMSON

112.0

120.5

116.5

COLORADO

79.5

83.0

81.5

COLORADO STATE

94.5

96.5

95.5

CONNECTICUT

93.5

86.5

89.5

DUKE

100.5

100.0

100.5

EAST CAROLINA

108.5

100.5

104.5

EASTERN MICHIGAN

76.0

73.5

75.0

FLORIDA

106.5

111.5

109.5

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

94.5

91.5

93.0

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

82.0

84.0

83.0

FLORIDA STATE

128.0

122.5

125.5

FRESNO STATE

103.5

106.5

104.5

GEORGIA

116.0

109.5

112.5

GEORGIA TECH

106.0

107.0

106.5

HAWAII

87.5

81.0

84.5

HOUSTON

100.5

103.0

101.5

IDAHO

80.5

74.5

77.5

ILLINOIS

88.5

86.0

87.5

INDIANA

98.5

93.0

95.5

IOWA

98.5

108.0

103.0

IOWA STATE

96.0

96.0

96.0

KANSAS

86.0

82.5

84.5

KANSAS STATE

111.5

112.0

111.5

KENT STATE

95.5

95.5

95.5

KENTUCKY

91.5

86.5

89.0

LOUISIANA TECH

94.5

98.0

96.5

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

91.5

98.5

95.0

LOUISIANA-MONROE

85.0

100.5

92.5

LOUISVILLE

108.5

106.5

107.5

LSU

115.0

114.5

114.5

MARSHALL

105.0

101.5

103.5

MARYLAND

91.5

98.5

95.0

MEMPHIS

92.0

96.5

94.5

MIAMI

104.5

100.5

102.5

MIAMI (OHIO)

80.0

81.5

81.0

MICHIGAN

107.0

103.5

105.5

MICHIGAN STATE

106.5

117.5

111.5

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

100.5

90.0

95.5

MINNESOTA

99.5

98.0

98.5

MISSISSIPPI

106.5

113.5

110.0

MISSISSIPPI STATE

104.0

106.5

105.5

MISSOURI

105.5

112.5

109.0

NAVY

94.5

100.5

97.5

NEBRASKA

105.5

110.0

107.5

NEVADA

95.5

98.0

96.5

NEW MEXICO

84.5

86.5

85.5

NEW MEXICO STATE

73.5

72.5

72.5

NORTH CAROLINA

104.0

102.5

103.5

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

96.5

96.5

96.5

NORTH TEXAS

100.5

100.0

100.5

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

105.0

108.5

106.5

NORTHWESTERN

100.0

106.5

103.5

NOTRE DAME

110.5

116.5

113.5

OHIO

92.5

94.5

93.5

OHIO STATE

114.0

115.5

114.5

OKLAHOMA

112.5

116.5

114.5

OKLAHOMA STATE

116.5

108.5

112.5

OREGON

122.5

119.5

121.0

OREGON STATE

102.0

113.0

107.5

PENN STATE

104.0

103.5

103.5

PITTSBURGH

102.5

102.5

102.5

PURDUE

84.0

92.0

88.0

RICE

97.0

96.5

96.5

RUTGERS

94.5

101.5

98.0

SAN DIEGO STATE

103.5

98.5

101.0

SAN JOSE STATE

98.5

100.0

99.5

SOUTH CAROLINA

110.5

111.5

110.5

SOUTH FLORIDA

83.5

97.5

90.5

SOUTHERN CAL

109.5

110.5

110.0

SOUTHERN METHODIST

93.5

94.5

94.5

SOUTHERN MISS

74.5

81.0

77.5

STANFORD

113.0

117.5

115.5

SYRACUSE

100.0

98.5

99.5

TCU

95.5

112.5

103.5

TEMPLE

88.0

100.5

94.5

TENNESSEE

98.5

97.5

98.5

TEXAS

105.5

106.5

106.0

TEXAS A&M

112.5

125.0

118.5

TEXAS EL PASO

88.0

86.5

87.0

TEXAS TECH

94.5

105.5

100.0

TOLEDO

102.5

99.0

101.0

TROY

86.0

90.0

88.0

TULANE

88.5

87.5

88.0

TULSA

95.0

98.5

96.5

UAB

80.5

84.5

82.5

UCLA

109.5

111.5

110.5

UNLV

90.5

88.0

89.5

UTAH

105.0

100.0

102.5

UTAH STATE

104.5

111.5

107.5

VANDERBILT

94.5

105.0

99.5

VIRGINIA

90.5

93.0

91.5

VIRGINIA TECH

103.5

104.5

104.0

WAKE FOREST

90.0

90.5

90.5

WASHINGTON

109.0

102.5

105.5

WASHINGTON STATE

89.5

98.5

94.0

WEST VIRGINIA

102.5

91.5

97.0

WESTERN MICHIGAN

78.5

86.5

82.5

WISCONSIN

114.0

113.5

113.5

WYOMING

85.0

93.5

89.5

 

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