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College Football: Team Power Ratings for 2013 End

Power Ratings and NCAAF Philosophy

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football handicapping from NFL handicapping. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys," who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced handicappers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line, and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college football handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.

Key Numbers: Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL games.

Blowouts: We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Other coaches feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college "O/U" numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

Personnel: It's also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.

Injuries: By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as "doubtful" have played while those regarded as "probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football handicapping.

The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. Clearly, understanding the differences between college football handicapping and NFL handicapping is essential to winning.

Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.

Team Name

Number of Games - Home

Number of Games - Away

Final H PR

Final A PR

Final Overall PR

ALABAMA

06

06

119.5

131.5

125.5

OREGON

07

05

121.0

129.5

125.5

TEXAS A&M

04

07

112.5

130.0

121.5

FLORIDA STATE

06

06

121.5

112.0

116.5

FLORIDA

07

05

107.5

121.5

114.5

CLEMSON

06

06

112.5

116.0

114.0

NOTRE DAME

08

05

108.5

119.5

114.0

GEORGIA

09

04

118.5

108.5

113.5

ARKANSAS STATE

03

07

117.5

109.0

113.0

KANSAS STATE

06

06

113.5

111.5

112.5

OREGON STATE

06

06

109.0

113.5

111.5

SOUTH CAROLINA

07

05

114.5

108.5

111.5

UTAH STATE

05

05

105.0

118.0

111.5

OKLAHOMA STATE

07

05

120.5

101.5

111.0

CINCINNATI

05

06

111.0

110.0

110.5

MICHIGAN

05

07

109.0

112.0

110.5

OKLAHOMA

07

05

107.5

113.5

110.5

WISCONSIN

07

06

106.5

115.0

110.5

PENN STATE

07

05

107.5

112.5

109.5

SOUTHERN CAL

07

06

108.0

110.5

109.5

STANFORD

08

06

105.5

114.5

109.5

FRESNO STATE

06

06

106.5

111.5

109.0

LSU

08

04

112.0

106.0

109.0

TEXAS

07

06

108.5

109.5

109.0

BYU

05

07

102.5

114.0

108.5

CENTRAL FLORIDA

07

07

104.5

112.5

108.5

NEBRASKA

06

07

117.0

99.5

108.5

SAN JOSE STATE

05

05

103.5

112.5

108.0

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

05

07

104.0

110.5

107.5

OHIO STATE

08

04

106.5

107.5

107.0

ARIZONA STATE

06

06

112.5

100.5

106.5

BOISE STATE

07

06

104.0

108.5

106.5

MICHIGAN STATE

08

05

100.5

112.5

106.5

PITTSBURGH

04

07

111.5

101.0

106.5

TULSA

07

06

110.5

102.0

106.5

GEORGIA TECH

07

06

100.0

111.0

105.5

KENT STATE

06

07

105.5

105.5

105.5

LOUISIANA TECH

05

05

108.5

102.5

105.5

BAYLOR

06

06

105.0

104.5

104.5

LOUISVILLE

06

06

101.5

106.5

104.5

MISSISSIPPI

07

05

102.5

107.0

104.5

NORTH CAROLINA

06

05

104.0

104.5

104.5

NORTHWESTERN

06

06

101.5

108.5

104.5

RUTGERS

05

07

102.5

105.5

104.0

SAN DIEGO STATE

07

05

103.0

105.0

104.0

TCU

05

07

94.5

113.0

103.5

VANDERBILT

05

06

99.0

107.0

103.0

SOUTHERN METHODIST

06

06

104.5

100.0

102.5

SYRACUSE

06

06

106.5

98.5

102.5

TOLEDO

05

07

102.5

101.5

102.5

UCLA

08

06

102.5

102.5

102.5

BALL STATE

05

08

102.0

100.5

101.5

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

04

06

100.5

102.0

101.5

NEVADA

05

06

97.0

106.0

101.5

TENNESSEE

06

05

96.5

106.0

101.5

VIRGINIA TECH

07

05

106.0

96.5

101.5

WEST VIRGINIA

07

05

105.5

97.0

101.5

MIAMI

05

06

104.5

95.5

100.5

MISSISSIPPI STATE

06

05

103.0

97.5

100.5

IOWA STATE

06

06

97.0

103.0

100.0

MISSOURI

06

05

96.5

103.5

100.0

TEXAS TECH

06

05

99.5

99.5

99.5

WASHINGTON

05

07

106.0

93.5

99.5

LOUISIANA-MONROE

05

06

90.5

107.5

99.0

OHIO

05

06

95.5

100.0

98.0

EAST CAROLINA

05

07

100.5

94.5

97.5

ARIZONA

08

04

106.0

88.5

97.0

UTAH

05

06

99.5

94.5

97.0

NAVY

04

07

90.5

102.5

96.5

IOWA

06

05

92.0

100.5

96.0

PURDUE

06

06

96.5

95.5

96.0

AIR FORCE

05

07

98.0

92.5

95.5

BOWLING GREEN

05

06

94.5

96.5

95.5

MINNESOTA

06

06

96.0

95.5

95.5

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

05

06

92.0

99.5

95.5

RICE

06

06

94.5

97.0

95.5

CALIFORNIA

06

05

97.5

92.5

95.0

HOUSTON

06

05

97.0

91.5

94.5

TROY

05

05

92.5

96.5

94.5

ARKANSAS

07

04

98.0

90.0

94.0

DUKE

07

05

99.5

87.0

93.5

MARSHALL

05

06

91.5

95.5

93.5

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

04

05

97.5

90.5

93.5

SOUTH FLORIDA

05

06

92.5

93.5

93.0

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

05

05

91.0

93.5

92.5

NORTH TEXAS

03

06

94.0

91.0

92.5

WYOMING

05

06

88.5

95.5

92.5

BUFFALO

05

05

90.0

93.5

92.0

CONNECTICUT

05

06

93.0

91.0

92.0

TEMPLE

05

05

86.0

98.0

92.0

INDIANA

05

05

92.5

90.0

91.5

MEMPHIS

05

06

90.0

93.0

91.5

NEW MEXICO

04

07

97.5

86.5

91.5

TEXAS EL PASO

06

06

89.5

93.5

91.5

VIRGINIA

06

05

91.0

92.0

91.5

BOSTON COLLEGE

05

06

92.5

88.5

90.5

MARYLAND

05

06

85.0

95.5

90.5

AUBURN

07

04

91.5

88.5

90.0

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

06

04

88.0

91.5

89.5

WESTERN MICHIGAN

04

06

87.5

91.5

89.5

MIAMI (OHIO)

03

07

95.5

82.5

89.0

UNLV

06

06

92.5

85.5

89.0

WASHINGTON STATE

05

06

85.5

91.5

88.5

ARMY

07

04

92.0

80.5

86.5

COLORADO STATE

06

05

87.5

85.5

86.5

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

04

05

87.0

85.5

86.5

UAB

05

06

85.0

88.0

86.5

KANSAS

05

06

87.5

84.0

85.5

ILLINOIS

06

05

86.5

84.0

85.0

EASTERN MICHIGAN

05

06

84.5

84.5

84.5

SOUTHERN MISS

06

05

82.0

87.0

84.5

KENTUCKY

05

05

93.0

74.5

83.5

WAKE FOREST

06

05

86.5

80.0

83.5

TULANE

07

05

82.5

83.5

83.0

AKRON

04

06

75.5

90.0

82.5

HAWAII

04

06

83.0

82.0

82.5

IDAHO

03

06

87.5

77.5

82.5

NEW MEXICO STATE

04

05

79.5

79.5

79.5

COLORADO

05

06

69.5

80.5

75.0

 

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