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College Football: Team Power Ratings for 12/3/2016

Power Ratings and NCAAF Philosophy

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football handicapping from NFL handicapping. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys," who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced handicappers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line, and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college football handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.

Key Numbers: Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL games.

Blowouts: We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Other coaches feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college "O/U" numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

Personnel: It's also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.

Injuries: By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as "doubtful" have played while those regarded as "probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football handicapping.

The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. Clearly, understanding the differences between college football handicapping and NFL handicapping is essential to winning.

Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.

Team Name

Final H PR

Final A PR

Final Overall PR

AIR FORCE

102.5

103.5

103.5

AKRON

95.5

96.5

96.0

ALABAMA

121.5

124.5

123.0

ARIZONA

101.5

93.0

97.5

ARIZONA STATE

95.0

95.5

95.5

ARKANSAS

101.5

102.5

102.0

ARKANSAS STATE

104.5

104.0

104.5

ARMY

77.5

101.5

89.5

AUBURN

108.0

107.5

107.5

BALL STATE

89.5

92.5

91.0

BAYLOR

98.5

106.5

102.5

BOISE STATE

104.5

111.0

107.5

BOSTON COLLEGE

91.5

92.5

92.0

BOWLING GREEN

105.5

99.5

102.5

BUFFALO

92.0

85.5

88.5

BYU

103.5

107.5

105.5

CALIFORNIA

96.0

97.5

97.0

CENTRAL FLORIDA

88.0

98.0

93.0

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

95.5

99.5

97.5

CINCINNATI

101.0

93.5

97.5

CLEMSON

116.5

118.0

117.5

COLORADO

106.0

101.5

103.5

COLORADO STATE

98.5

107.5

103.0

CONNECTICUT

93.5

88.5

91.0

DUKE

96.5

97.0

96.5

EAST CAROLINA

92.0

100.5

96.5

EASTERN MICHIGAN

90.5

87.0

88.5

FLORIDA

99.0

102.5

100.5

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

89.0

91.5

90.5

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

84.5

93.5

89.0

FLORIDA STATE

108.0

109.5

108.5

FRESNO STATE

91.5

84.5

88.0

GEORGIA

101.0

100.5

100.5

GEORGIA TECH

97.5

96.5

97.0

HAWAII

80.5

84.5

82.5

HOUSTON

112.5

109.5

111.0

IDAHO

105.5

91.0

98.5

ILLINOIS

89.5

93.0

91.5

INDIANA

93.5

101.0

97.0

IOWA

106.5

101.5

104.0

IOWA STATE

100.5

86.5

93.5

KANSAS

77.0

78.5

78.0

KANSAS STATE

100.5

102.0

101.5

KENT STATE

91.5

87.5

89.5

KENTUCKY

97.0

98.5

97.5

LOUISIANA TECH

113.5

102.5

108.0

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

86.0

109.0

97.5

LOUISIANA-MONROE

73.0

81.0

77.0

LOUISVILLE

108.5

110.5

109.5

LSU

110.0

112.0

111.0

MARSHALL

101.5

99.5

100.5

MARYLAND

99.5

90.5

95.0

MEMPHIS

110.5

110.5

110.5

MIAMI

100.5

104.0

102.0

MIAMI (OHIO)

88.5

99.0

93.5

MICHIGAN

116.5

116.0

116.0

MICHIGAN STATE

106.0

101.0

103.5

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

106.5

102.5

104.5

MINNESOTA

101.5

106.5

104.0

MISSISSIPPI

108.5

103.5

106.0

MISSISSIPPI STATE

104.5

105.5

105.0

MISSOURI

95.5

86.5

91.0

NAVY

107.5

113.5

110.5

NEBRASKA

103.0

97.5

100.5

NEVADA

94.5

99.0

96.5

NEW MEXICO

99.0

92.5

96.0

NEW MEXICO STATE

87.5

77.0

82.5

NORTH CAROLINA

103.5

109.0

106.5

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

94.5

103.5

99.0

NORTH TEXAS

93.5

88.5

91.0

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

98.5

101.5

100.0

NORTHWESTERN

100.5

103.5

102.0

NOTRE DAME

105.5

105.0

105.5

OHIO

96.5

98.0

97.5

OHIO STATE

117.0

119.5

118.5

OKLAHOMA

111.0

117.5

114.5

OKLAHOMA STATE

103.5

104.5

104.0

OREGON

97.5

101.5

99.5

OREGON STATE

92.5

89.0

90.5

PENN STATE

109.5

99.0

104.5

PITTSBURGH

102.5

103.5

103.0

PURDUE

79.0

92.0

85.5

RICE

85.5

83.0

84.5

RUTGERS

78.5

87.0

83.0

SAN DIEGO STATE

106.5

115.5

111.0

SAN JOSE STATE

98.5

91.0

94.5

SOUTH CAROLINA

95.0

94.5

94.5

SOUTH FLORIDA

108.5

107.0

108.0

SOUTHERN CAL

106.5

108.0

107.5

SOUTHERN METHODIST

89.5

89.5

89.5

SOUTHERN MISS

102.5

115.5

109.5

STANFORD

107.5

113.5

110.5

SYRACUSE

88.5

92.0

90.5

TCU

96.5

110.0

103.5

TEMPLE

109.0

106.5

107.5

TENNESSEE

103.0

111.5

107.5

TEXAS

103.0

95.5

99.5

TEXAS A&M

100.5

105.5

102.5

TEXAS EL PASO

86.0

88.0

87.0

TEXAS TECH

100.0

93.5

96.5

TOLEDO

106.5

107.0

106.5

TROY

91.5

108.5

100.0

TULANE

86.5

88.5

87.5

TULSA

95.5

98.0

96.5

UAB

78.5

83.0

80.5

UCLA

99.5

101.5

100.5

UNLV

84.5

94.0

89.5

UTAH

98.5

104.5

101.5

UTAH STATE

101.5

94.5

97.5

VANDERBILT

95.0

92.0

93.5

VIRGINIA

96.5

93.5

95.0

VIRGINIA TECH

110.0

100.5

105.5

WAKE FOREST

96.5

89.5

93.0

WASHINGTON

111.0

115.5

113.5

WASHINGTON STATE

111.0

106.5

108.5

WEST VIRGINIA

102.5

102.0

102.5

WESTERN MICHIGAN

111.0

117.5

114.0

WISCONSIN

112.5

111.5

112.0

WYOMING

102.0

90.0

96.0

 

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