Sportrends  
Software Overview
Subscribe/Order
Download Software
Download Stats
Free Software
Late Phone Service
Free Daily Picks
Team Stats
Vegas Odds
Sports Links
Advertising
Contact Us
Home Page
Team Stats

College Football: Team Power Ratings Ends for 2014 Season

Power Ratings and NCAAF Philosophy

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football handicapping from NFL handicapping. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys," who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced handicappers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line, and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college football handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.

Key Numbers: Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL games.

Blowouts: We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Other coaches feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college "O/U" numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

Personnel: It's also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.

Injuries: By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as "doubtful" have played while those regarded as "probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football handicapping.

The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. Clearly, understanding the differences between college football handicapping and NFL handicapping is essential to winning.

Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.

Team Name

Final H PR

Final A PR

Final Overall PR

AIR FORCE

87.5

89.5

88.5

AKRON

83.5

92.5

88.5

ALABAMA

123.0

126.5

124.5

ARIZONA

107.0

97.5

102.0

ARIZONA STATE

117.5

105.0

111.5

ARKANSAS

91.5

93.0

92.5

ARKANSAS STATE

102.5

100.5

101.5

ARMY

91.5

83.0

87.0

AUBURN

99.5

103.0

101.5

BALL STATE

103.5

102.5

103.0

BAYLOR

123.5

108.0

115.5

BOISE STATE

111.5

109.5

110.5

BOSTON COLLEGE

98.5

92.5

95.5

BOWLING GREEN

103.5

103.5

103.5

BUFFALO

95.0

99.5

97.5

BYU

109.5

110.5

110.0

CALIFORNIA

87.5

83.5

85.5

CENTRAL FLORIDA

108.0

112.5

110.5

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

89.0

89.0

89.0

CINCINNATI

107.5

106.0

106.5

CLEMSON

111.5

121.5

116.5

COLORADO

75.5

83.5

79.5

COLORADO STATE

95.5

96.5

95.5

CONNECTICUT

93.5

87.5

90.5

DUKE

99.5

98.0

99.0

EAST CAROLINA

108.0

100.5

104.5

EASTERN MICHIGAN

78.0

78.5

78.0

FLORIDA

106.5

112.5

109.5

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

92.0

93.0

92.5

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

82.5

81.5

82.0

FLORIDA STATE

131.0

123.5

127.5

FRESNO STATE

108.5

113.5

111.0

GEORGIA

115.5

108.5

112.0

GEORGIA TECH

107.0

105.5

106.5

HAWAII

87.0

82.0

84.5

HOUSTON

101.0

105.5

103.5

IDAHO

84.0

72.0

78.0

ILLINOIS

88.5

87.5

88.0

INDIANA

101.5

89.0

95.0

IOWA

98.5

108.5

103.5

IOWA STATE

95.5

96.5

96.0

KANSAS

84.0

85.5

85.0

KANSAS STATE

113.0

114.5

113.5

KENT STATE

97.5

101.5

99.5

KENTUCKY

88.5

83.5

86.0

LOUISIANA TECH

95.5

94.5

95.0

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

96.0

101.5

98.5

LOUISIANA-MONROE

87.5

101.5

94.5

LOUISVILLE

109.5

105.5

107.5

LSU

115.0

111.5

113.5

MARSHALL

104.5

101.5

103.0

MARYLAND

91.5

95.0

93.5

MEMPHIS

92.5

99.5

95.5

MIAMI

104.0

101.5

102.5

MIAMI (OHIO)

81.0

79.5

80.5

MICHIGAN

112.0

105.5

108.5

MICHIGAN STATE

101.5

118.5

110.0

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

102.0

91.0

96.5

MINNESOTA

99.5

97.0

98.0

MISSISSIPPI

102.5

108.5

105.5

MISSISSIPPI STATE

103.0

100.5

101.5

MISSOURI

104.0

112.5

108.5

NAVY

90.5

101.5

96.5

NEBRASKA

104.5

105.5

105.0

NEVADA

97.0

97.5

97.5

NEW MEXICO

88.0

88.0

88.0

NEW MEXICO STATE

72.5

72.5

72.5

NORTH CAROLINA

102.0

104.5

103.5

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

95.5

95.0

95.5

NORTH TEXAS

101.5

101.5

101.5

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

108.5

112.5

110.5

NORTHWESTERN

101.5

103.5

102.5

NOTRE DAME

108.0

115.5

111.5

OHIO

94.5

96.5

95.5

OHIO STATE

112.5

116.5

114.5

OKLAHOMA

110.5

110.5

110.5

OKLAHOMA STATE

117.5

110.5

114.0

OREGON

122.0

120.5

121.5

OREGON STATE

99.5

115.5

107.5

PENN STATE

106.5

101.5

104.0

PITTSBURGH

105.5

101.0

103.5

PURDUE

84.5

92.0

88.5

RICE

99.5

97.5

98.5

RUTGERS

91.5

103.5

97.5

SAN DIEGO STATE

103.5

100.0

101.5

SAN JOSE STATE

102.0

104.5

103.5

SOUTH CAROLINA

112.5

110.0

111.5

SOUTH FLORIDA

85.5

98.5

92.0

SOUTHERN CAL

104.5

109.5

107.0

SOUTHERN METHODIST

99.5

98.5

99.0

SOUTHERN MISS

74.5

82.0

78.5

STANFORD

113.5

114.0

113.5

SYRACUSE

101.5

95.5

98.5

TCU

92.5

111.0

101.5

TEMPLE

87.5

97.0

92.5

TENNESSEE

94.5

96.5

95.5

TEXAS

105.5

107.5

106.5

TEXAS A&M

115.0

120.5

118.0

TEXAS EL PASO

88.5

85.0

86.5

TEXAS TECH

96.5

105.5

101.0

TOLEDO

105.0

100.5

102.5

TROY

87.5

95.0

91.5

TULANE

89.5

89.5

89.5

TULSA

99.0

100.0

99.5

UAB

79.5

84.5

82.0

UCLA

107.5

109.5

108.5

UNLV

91.0

91.5

91.0

UTAH

102.5

97.5

100.5

UTAH STATE

104.5

115.5

110.5

VANDERBILT

96.5

106.5

101.5

VIRGINIA

85.5

91.5

88.5

VIRGINIA TECH

105.5

103.0

104.0

WAKE FOREST

91.5

88.5

89.5

WASHINGTON

109.5

101.5

105.5

WASHINGTON STATE

85.0

98.0

91.5

WEST VIRGINIA

100.5

91.5

96.5

WESTERN MICHIGAN

80.5

87.5

84.5

WISCONSIN

112.5

115.0

114.0

WYOMING

84.5

97.0

90.5

 

Previous Page
Order | Software Overview | Free Software | Download Stats | Free Software |Premium Internet Service | Free Daily Picks
Team Stats | Vegas Odds | Sports Links | Advertising | Contact Us | Home

1987 Sportrends Inc. 1987 College and Pro Football Prophet. All rights reserved. No portion of this website may be reproduced or redistributed without prior express written consent of Sportrends, Inc. Any use of this information in violation of any federal, state or local laws is strictly prohibited.