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College Football: Final Power Ratings for 2008 - 2009

Power Ratings and NCAAF Philosophy

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football handicapping from NFL handicapping. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys," who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced handicappers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line, and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college football handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.

Key Numbers: Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL games.

Blowouts: We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Other coaches feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college "O/U" numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

Personnel: It's also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.

Injuries: By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as "doubtful" have played while those regarded as "probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football handicapping.

The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. Clearly, understanding the differences between college football handicapping and NFL handicapping is essential to winning.

Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.

Rank Team Overall Home Away
1 USC 121.8 112.4 115.1
2 Florida 117.3 108.1 113.8
3 Oklahoma 111.5 105.4 110.1
4 TCU 110.3 107.3 110.2
5 Georgia 109.6 99.5 115.2
6 Utah 109.2 101.0 113.9
7 Penn St 109.1 102.7 111.9
8 Oregon St 109.0 105.0 109.1
9 Arizona 108.8 108.2 105.5
10 Texas 108.8 102.7 112.7
11 California 108.4 104.1 106.8
12 Ohio St 108.4 102.8 116.7
13 Boise St 108.0 104.4 106.6
14 Kansas 107.9 105.6 108.8
15 Oklahoma St 107.7 102.7 106.9
16 Alabama 107.0 99.9 110.6
17 Illinois 106.9 97.9 111.0
18 Georgia Tech 106.9 100.0 110.2
19 Boston Coll 106.7 106.7 109.7
20 Florida St 106.7 100.7 105.9
21 Wisconsin 105.7 101.0 110.3
22 Mississippi 105.6 97.2 105.2
23 Texas Tech 105.6 102.9 111.9
24 Purdue 105.5 99.1 107.3
25 Nebraska 105.3 94.3 109.0
26 Cincinnati 105.2 104.9 109.0
27 West Virginia 105.1 101.5 112.2
28 Iowa 104.8 95.4 109.4
29 Oregon 104.7 102.1 113.3
30 Rutgers 104.7 102.2 109.7
31 Michigan St 104.1 98.8 108.1
32 N. Carolina 103.7 102.2 98.1
33 Pittsburgh 103.7 97.5 109.8
34 Tulsa 103.6 106.1 103.2
35 Clemson 103.6 102.0 106.2
36 BYU 103.3 106.6 106.4
37 Tennessee 103.2 100.1 103.8
38 Wake Forest 103.1 98.7 104.0
39 S.Carolina 102.9 100.8 102.2
40 Virginia 102.9 98.6 102.0
41 Notre Dame 102.9 94.3 106.0
42 Ball St 102.8 98.3 102.5
43 Virginia Tech 102.5 101.8 106.7
44 Stanford 102.5 95.9 100.7
45 Houston 102.3 99.3 105.7
46 Maryland 102.1 98.8 106.1
47 LSU 102.1 100.0 109.0
48 Auburn 102.0 99.5 102.1
49 Missouri 101.9 98.9 107.9
50 Colorado St 101.9 95.0 103.9
51 Michigan 101.8 99.2 110.7
52 Southern Miss 101.8 96.1 108.5
53 Arkansas 101.6 95.3 106.1
54 S Florida 101.6 101.7 108.8
55 Miami Fla 101.3 96.8 104.1
56 Arizona St 100.9 100.8 103.9
57 East Carolina 100.5 102.3 100.3
58 Duke 100.3 93.2 99.8
59 Air Force 100.2 99.9 105.3
60 Northern Ill 100.2 97.2 97.1
61 New Mexico 99.7 95.7 98.4
62 Rice 99.4 94.3 97.5
63 Colorado 99.4 98.8 100.0
64 Nevada 99.3 95.1 103.3
65 Bowling Green 99.0 91.2 105.3
66 Texas A&M 98.8 95.0 101.7
67 Kentucky 98.8 96.9 103.2
68 Ucla 98.6 100.0 103.3
69 Kansas St 97.8 93.2 107.1
70 Baylor 97.8 94.2 99.1
71 UNLV 97.3 89.4 101.1
72 Troy 96.9 95.6 104.4
73 Fla Atlantic 96.9 94.3 100.1
74 N.Carolina St 96.5 92.2 99.0
75 San Jose St 96.3 96.2 96.8
76 Connecticut 96.2 96.9 100.2
77 Memphis 96.0 94.0 96.8
78 Northwestern 95.9 93.3 103.1
79 Vanderbilt 95.7 95.7 98.8
80 Toledo 95.6 95.7 96.4
81 Minnesota 95.6 89.7 103.6
82 Mississippi S 95.6 93.7 99.1
83 Central Fla 95.4 100.9 99.4
84 Hawaii 95.1 96.5 107.0
85 Fresno St 95.1 90.6 101.9
86 Ohio 94.9 91.0 102.9
87 New Mexico St 94.1 89.8 99.7
88 Marshall 93.9 96.7 92.4
89 Temple 93.8 90.9 99.7
90 Syracuse 93.7 84.1 98.1
91 Louisville 93.6 97.4 98.4
92 Eastern Mich 93.4 91.8 96.5
93 Navy 93.2 90.8 99.0
94 Utah St 92.7 84.8 98.4
95 Texas El Paso 92.3 91.7 92.6
96 Arkansas St 92.1 92.1 97.8
97 Tulane 92.0 88.1 94.9
98 Wyoming 92.0 92.0 98.3
99 Buffalo 91.7 94.3 100.1
100 SMU 91.4 90.5 95.2
101 Louisiana T 91.3 88.2 95.1
102 Central Mich 90.9 90.9 103.6
103 Washington 90.8 93.5 97.6
104 San Diego St 90.6 87.8 91.6
105 UL Lafayette 90.2 89.3 94.4
106 Iowa St 89.9 90.8 98.7
107 Indiana 89.3 90.1 98.5
108 UAB 89.1 86.9 90.9
109 Akron 88.5 88.2 97.7
110 UL Monroe 88.2 87.2 95.4
111 Kent St 88.1 92.7 99.0
112 Florida Intl 88.0 84.9 94.5
113 Army 87.7 81.5 94.8
114 Western Mich 87.1 93.7 96.8
115 Miami Ohio 87.0 85.5 97.2
116 Middle Tenn 86.1 92.3 95.7
117 Idaho 85.4 84.0 96.0
118 Washington St 83.2 91.5 90.7
119 North Texas 82.5 84.5 88.9
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