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College Football: Team Power Ratings for week 9, 2014 Season

Power Ratings and NCAAF Philosophy

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football handicapping from NFL handicapping. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys," who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced handicappers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line, and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college football handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.

Key Numbers: Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL games.

Blowouts: We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Other coaches feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college "O/U" numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

Personnel: It's also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.

Injuries: By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as "doubtful" have played while those regarded as "probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football handicapping.

The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. Clearly, understanding the differences between college football handicapping and NFL handicapping is essential to winning.

Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.

Team Name

Final H PR

Final A PR

Final Overall PR

AIR FORCE

82.5

88.5

85.5

AKRON

81.5

96.5

89.0

ALABAMA

120.0

120.0

120.0

ARIZONA

106.5

106.0

106.5

ARIZONA STATE

110.0

113.5

111.5

ARKANSAS

97.5

100.5

99.0

ARKANSAS STATE

91.5

96.5

93.5

ARMY

95.0

87.5

91.5

AUBURN

117.5

122.5

120.0

BALL STATE

102.0

102.5

102.0

BAYLOR

129.5

118.5

124.0

BOISE STATE

107.5

102.5

105.0

BOSTON COLLEGE

104.5

93.5

99.0

BOWLING GREEN

104.0

108.0

106.0

BUFFALO

93.5

101.5

97.5

BYU

104.5

112.5

108.5

CALIFORNIA

84.5

89.5

86.5

CENTRAL FLORIDA

108.5

111.0

109.5

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

83.5

85.5

84.5

CINCINNATI

100.5

98.5

99.5

CLEMSON

111.5

117.0

114.5

COLORADO

90.0

86.5

88.0

COLORADO STATE

94.5

103.5

99.5

CONNECTICUT

92.5

80.5

86.5

DUKE

103.5

105.5

104.5

EAST CAROLINA

110.5

110.0

110.5

EASTERN MICHIGAN

69.0

68.5

68.5

FLORIDA

100.0

104.5

102.5

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

100.5

91.5

96.0

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

82.0

78.5

80.5

FLORIDA STATE

130.5

131.0

131.0

FRESNO STATE

100.5

100.5

100.5

GEORGIA

114.5

107.5

111.5

GEORGIA TECH

107.0

105.5

106.5

HAWAII

93.0

87.0

90.0

HOUSTON

104.0

106.5

105.5

IDAHO

82.5

76.0

79.5

ILLINOIS

93.0

89.5

91.5

INDIANA

104.0

99.5

101.5

IOWA

102.5

110.0

106.5

IOWA STATE

98.5

91.5

95.0

KANSAS

85.5

81.5

83.5

KANSAS STATE

108.5

104.5

106.5

KENT STATE

87.5

90.5

89.0

KENTUCKY

92.0

92.5

92.5

LOUISIANA TECH

87.5

97.5

92.5

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

74.5

95.5

85.0

LOUISIANA-MONROE

75.5

92.5

84.0

LOUISVILLE

113.5

111.5

112.5

LSU

112.0

114.5

113.5

MARSHALL

120.0

106.0

113.0

MARYLAND

93.5

100.5

97.0

MEMPHIS

92.5

103.5

98.0

MIAMI

104.0

104.0

104.0

MIAMI (OHIO)

77.5

81.5

79.5

MICHIGAN

105.5

98.0

102.0

MICHIGAN STATE

110.5

117.5

114.0

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

101.5

93.5

97.5

MINNESOTA

102.5

102.5

102.5

MISSISSIPPI

109.5

117.0

113.0

MISSISSIPPI STATE

104.5

112.5

108.5

MISSOURI

110.0

121.5

116.0

NAVY

101.5

100.0

100.5

NEBRASKA

103.0

117.0

110.0

NEVADA

97.5

94.5

96.0

NEW MEXICO

82.0

88.5

85.5

NEW MEXICO STATE

74.0

67.5

71.0

NORTH CAROLINA

101.5

98.5

99.5

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

97.5

94.0

95.5

NORTH TEXAS

105.5

100.5

102.5

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

100.5

104.0

102.5

NORTHWESTERN

97.0

104.0

100.5

NOTRE DAME

111.5

103.0

107.5

OHIO

90.0

92.0

91.0

OHIO STATE

119.5

117.5

118.5

OKLAHOMA

111.5

114.5

113.0

OKLAHOMA STATE

115.0

111.5

113.0

OREGON

118.5

117.0

117.5

OREGON STATE

97.0

108.5

102.5

PENN STATE

100.5

100.5

100.5

PITTSBURGH

96.0

102.5

99.5

PURDUE

81.5

92.5

86.5

RICE

99.5

97.0

98.5

RUTGERS

90.5

97.5

94.0

SAN DIEGO STATE

100.0

93.0

96.5

SAN JOSE STATE

91.5

94.5

93.0

SOUTH CAROLINA

106.0

111.5

108.5

SOUTH FLORIDA

78.5

98.5

88.5

SOUTHERN CAL

111.5

110.0

111.0

SOUTHERN METHODIST

83.5

91.0

87.5

SOUTHERN MISS

66.5

85.5

75.5

STANFORD

115.5

115.5

115.5

SYRACUSE

93.5

97.5

95.5

TCU

98.5

108.5

103.5

TEMPLE

93.0

99.5

96.5

TENNESSEE

100.0

96.0

98.0

TEXAS

104.0

105.5

104.5

TEXAS A&M

111.0

113.5

112.5

TEXAS EL PASO

85.0

80.5

83.0

TEXAS TECH

89.5

104.5

97.5

TOLEDO

102.0

98.5

100.5

TROY

77.5

80.5

78.5

TULANE

97.5

90.5

94.0

TULSA

83.5

96.5

90.0

UAB

76.5

85.0

81.0

UCLA

109.5

114.5

112.0

UNLV

93.5

89.5

91.5

UTAH

106.5

105.5

106.0

UTAH STATE

103.5

107.5

105.5

VANDERBILT

94.0

98.0

96.0

VIRGINIA

93.5

90.0

92.0

VIRGINIA TECH

100.0

115.0

107.5

WAKE FOREST

92.5

95.5

94.0

WASHINGTON

112.5

109.0

110.5

WASHINGTON STATE

91.5

106.0

98.5

WEST VIRGINIA

95.5

93.5

94.5

WESTERN MICHIGAN

78.5

80.5

79.5

WISCONSIN

116.5

110.5

113.5

WYOMING

85.5

92.5

89.0

 

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