Sportrends  
Software Overview
Subscribe/Order
Download Software
Download Stats
Free Software
Late Phone Service
Free Daily Picks
Team Stats
Vegas Odds
Sports Links
Advertising
Contact Us
Home Page
Team Stats

College Football: Team Power Ratings for week 10, 2014 Season

Power Ratings and NCAAF Philosophy

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football handicapping from NFL handicapping. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys," who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced handicappers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line, and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college football handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.

Key Numbers: Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL games.

Blowouts: We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Other coaches feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college "O/U" numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

Personnel: It's also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.

Injuries: By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as "doubtful" have played while those regarded as "probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football handicapping.

The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. Clearly, understanding the differences between college football handicapping and NFL handicapping is essential to winning.

Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.

Team Name

Final H PR

Final A PR

Final Overall PR

AIR FORCE

109.5

96.0

102.5

AKRON

89.5

91.5

90.5

ALABAMA

125.5

116.5

121.5

ARIZONA

108.5

119.5

113.5

ARIZONA STATE

93.5

117.5

105.5

ARKANSAS

113.0

107.0

110.0

ARKANSAS STATE

94.0

89.5

91.5

ARMY

93.5

86.5

90.0

AUBURN

122.0

117.0

119.5

BALL STATE

102.0

94.0

98.0

BAYLOR

120.0

112.5

116.0

BOISE STATE

106.5

98.0

102.0

BOSTON COLLEGE

97.5

99.0

98.0

BOWLING GREEN

93.5

95.0

94.5

BUFFALO

89.5

92.5

91.0

BYU

95.5

104.5

100.0

CALIFORNIA

91.5

100.5

96.0

CENTRAL FLORIDA

106.0

96.5

101.5

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

91.0

97.5

94.0

CINCINNATI

100.0

98.5

99.5

CLEMSON

120.0

106.0

113.0

COLORADO

96.5

90.5

93.5

COLORADO STATE

96.5

103.5

99.5

CONNECTICUT

81.5

94.0

88.0

DUKE

110.0

110.5

110.5

EAST CAROLINA

102.0

96.5

99.5

EASTERN MICHIGAN

95.5

65.0

80.5

FLORIDA

94.5

114.0

104.0

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

107.5

88.5

97.5

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

91.5

133.5

112.5

FLORIDA STATE

110.0

101.5

106.0

FRESNO STATE

93.0

90.0

91.5

GEORGIA

110.5

118.0

114.0

GEORGIA TECH

102.5

105.5

104.0

HAWAII

91.0

97.5

94.5

HOUSTON

105.0

101.0

103.0

IDAHO

87.5

92.5

90.0

ILLINOIS

93.5

95.5

94.5

INDIANA

82.5

96.0

89.5

IOWA

100.5

94.5

97.5

IOWA STATE

97.5

94.5

96.0

KANSAS

90.5

85.0

88.0

KANSAS STATE

106.0

107.0

106.5

KENT STATE

91.5

80.5

85.5

KENTUCKY

101.0

95.5

98.0

LOUISIANA TECH

127.0

104.5

116.0

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

85.0

84.5

84.5

LOUISIANA-MONROE

84.5

89.0

86.5

LOUISVILLE

104.0

109.5

106.5

LSU

115.5

111.5

113.5

MARSHALL

104.0

120.5

112.5

MARYLAND

102.5

95.0

98.5

MEMPHIS

97.5

104.5

101.0

MIAMI

113.0

106.0

109.5

MIAMI (OHIO)

95.5

86.5

91.0

MICHIGAN

97.5

100.5

99.0

MICHIGAN STATE

113.5

110.0

111.5

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

89.5

95.5

92.5

MINNESOTA

101.5

104.5

103.0

MISSISSIPPI

115.5

121.5

118.5

MISSISSIPPI STATE

112.5

127.5

120.0

MISSOURI

95.5

120.5

108.0

NAVY

91.5

104.5

98.0

NEBRASKA

110.5

121.5

116.0

NEVADA

98.5

108.5

103.5

NEW MEXICO

77.0

102.5

89.5

NEW MEXICO STATE

96.5

82.5

89.5

NORTH CAROLINA

101.5

103.0

102.5

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

96.5

99.5

98.0

NORTH TEXAS

83.5

77.5

80.5

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

86.5

98.5

92.5

NORTHWESTERN

95.5

110.5

103.0

NOTRE DAME

109.0

105.5

107.5

OHIO

88.5

93.0

90.5

OHIO STATE

120.5

111.5

116.0

OKLAHOMA

110.5

123.0

116.5

OKLAHOMA STATE

97.5

98.5

98.5

OREGON

118.0

105.5

111.5

OREGON STATE

108.5

99.5

103.5

PENN STATE

102.5

105.0

103.5

PITTSBURGH

94.5

104.0

99.5

PURDUE

94.5

105.5

100.5

RICE

97.5

97.0

97.5

RUTGERS

95.5

98.5

97.5

SAN DIEGO STATE

94.5

87.5

91.5

SAN JOSE STATE

95.5

91.5

93.5

SOUTH CAROLINA

106.0

103.5

104.5

SOUTH FLORIDA

85.5

96.0

90.5

SOUTHERN CAL

116.5

109.0

112.5

SOUTHERN METHODIST

62.5

81.0

71.5

SOUTHERN MISS

83.0

97.5

90.5

STANFORD

108.5

99.0

103.5

SYRACUSE

90.0

117.5

103.5

TCU

123.5

115.5

119.5

TEMPLE

90.5

97.5

94.0

TENNESSEE

100.5

104.0

102.5

TEXAS

95.5

108.0

101.5

TEXAS A&M

109.5

103.5

106.5

TEXAS EL PASO

82.5

93.5

88.0

TEXAS TECH

90.5

90.5

90.5

TOLEDO

105.5

93.0

99.5

TROY

89.0

83.0

86.0

TULANE

97.5

88.5

93.0

TULSA

81.5

93.5

87.5

UAB

103.5

97.5

100.5

UCLA

107.5

105.5

106.5

UNLV

86.5

86.5

86.5

UTAH

103.0

109.5

106.5

UTAH STATE

96.5

101.5

98.5

VANDERBILT

80.0

98.0

89.0

VIRGINIA

104.0

105.0

104.5

VIRGINIA TECH

98.5

114.0

106.5

WAKE FOREST

94.0

95.5

94.5

WASHINGTON

98.5

102.0

100.0

WASHINGTON STATE

96.0

100.5

98.5

WEST VIRGINIA

107.0

106.0

106.5

WESTERN MICHIGAN

96.5

98.0

97.5

WISCONSIN

112.5

86.5

99.5

WYOMING

81.0

90.5

85.5

 

Previous Page
Order | Software Overview | Free Software | Download Stats | Free Software |Premium Internet Service | Free Daily Picks
Team Stats | Vegas Odds | Sports Links | Advertising | Contact Us | Home

1987 Sportrends Inc. 1987 College and Pro Football Prophet. All rights reserved. No portion of this website may be reproduced or redistributed without prior express written consent of Sportrends, Inc. Any use of this information in violation of any federal, state or local laws is strictly prohibited.