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College Football: Team Power Ratings for week 13, 2014 Season

Power Ratings and NCAAF Philosophy

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football handicapping from NFL handicapping. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys," who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced handicappers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line, and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college football handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.

Key Numbers: Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL games.

Blowouts: We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Other coaches feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college "O/U" numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

Personnel: It's also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.

Injuries: By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as "doubtful" have played while those regarded as "probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football handicapping.

The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. Clearly, understanding the differences between college football handicapping and NFL handicapping is essential to winning.

Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.

Team Name

Final H PR

Final A PR

Final Overall PR

AIR FORCE

109.5

104.5

107.5

AKRON

88.5

87.5

87.5

ALABAMA

125.5

118.5

122.5

ARIZONA

107.5

109.5

108.5

ARIZONA STATE

103.5

111.0

107.0

ARKANSAS

114.5

105.5

109.5

ARKANSAS STATE

101.0

94.5

97.5

ARMY

93.5

82.5

88.0

AUBURN

118.0

112.5

115.5

BALL STATE

97.5

97.0

97.5

BAYLOR

117.0

118.5

117.5

BOISE STATE

110.0

100.5

105.5

BOSTON COLLEGE

97.5

100.5

99.0

BOWLING GREEN

90.5

103.0

96.5

BUFFALO

99.5

87.5

93.5

BYU

97.0

110.5

103.5

CALIFORNIA

93.0

104.5

98.5

CENTRAL FLORIDA

106.5

88.5

97.5

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

92.5

103.5

98.0

CINCINNATI

103.5

103.0

103.5

CLEMSON

120.5

100.0

110.5

COLORADO

94.5

90.5

92.5

COLORADO STATE

106.5

103.5

105.0

CONNECTICUT

86.0

88.5

87.0

DUKE

107.5

107.0

107.5

EAST CAROLINA

102.5

95.5

99.0

EASTERN MICHIGAN

89.5

64.0

76.5

FLORIDA

94.5

115.5

105.0

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

95.5

86.5

91.5

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

90.5

124.5

107.5

FLORIDA STATE

106.0

109.5

107.5

FRESNO STATE

81.5

86.5

84.5

GEORGIA

111.5

123.0

117.5

GEORGIA TECH

108.5

107.5

108.5

HAWAII

91.5

98.5

94.5

HOUSTON

98.5

106.5

102.5

IDAHO

79.0

95.5

87.0

ILLINOIS

88.5

93.0

90.5

INDIANA

87.0

92.5

89.5

IOWA

106.5

92.5

99.5

IOWA STATE

92.5

93.0

92.5

KANSAS

100.0

82.0

91.0

KANSAS STATE

108.5

100.5

104.5

KENT STATE

89.5

81.5

85.5

KENTUCKY

99.0

88.5

93.5

LOUISIANA TECH

127.0

105.0

116.0

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

90.5

96.5

93.5

LOUISIANA-MONROE

87.0

88.5

87.5

LOUISVILLE

103.5

111.5

107.5

LSU

112.5

106.5

109.5

MARSHALL

109.0

118.5

113.5

MARYLAND

96.0

97.0

96.5

MEMPHIS

101.5

107.5

104.5

MIAMI

115.0

106.5

111.0

MIAMI (OHIO)

91.5

89.0

90.5

MICHIGAN

100.0

94.5

97.5

MICHIGAN STATE

112.0

110.5

111.5

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

91.5

93.5

92.5

MINNESOTA

105.5

104.5

105.0

MISSISSIPPI

116.5

119.5

118.0

MISSISSIPPI STATE

111.0

123.5

117.5

MISSOURI

93.5

117.5

105.5

NAVY

90.5

104.5

97.5

NEBRASKA

110.5

112.5

111.5

NEVADA

102.5

105.5

104.0

NEW MEXICO

79.0

97.5

88.5

NEW MEXICO STATE

80.0

80.5

80.5

NORTH CAROLINA

103.5

99.5

101.5

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

95.0

95.5

95.0

NORTH TEXAS

88.5

80.0

84.5

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

92.0

100.5

96.5

NORTHWESTERN

96.0

104.5

100.5

NOTRE DAME

104.5

98.5

101.5

OHIO

95.5

93.5

94.5

OHIO STATE

120.5

117.5

119.5

OKLAHOMA

107.5

121.0

114.5

OKLAHOMA STATE

93.0

96.5

94.5

OREGON

119.5

110.5

115.0

OREGON STATE

101.5

96.5

98.5

PENN STATE

100.5

103.5

101.5

PITTSBURGH

94.5

101.5

98.5

PURDUE

96.5

104.0

100.5

RICE

99.5

95.5

97.5

RUTGERS

97.5

97.5

97.5

SAN DIEGO STATE

98.5

89.5

94.0

SAN JOSE STATE

91.0

86.5

88.5

SOUTH CAROLINA

101.0

102.5

101.5

SOUTH FLORIDA

84.5

90.0

87.5

SOUTHERN CAL

114.0

106.5

110.5

SOUTHERN METHODIST

68.0

84.0

76.0

SOUTHERN MISS

84.5

93.5

88.5

STANFORD

109.0

98.5

103.5

SYRACUSE

88.5

118.0

103.5

TCU

121.0

113.5

117.5

TEMPLE

99.5

95.5

97.5

TENNESSEE

109.5

97.0

103.5

TEXAS

100.5

110.5

105.5

TEXAS A&M

104.0

107.5

106.0

TEXAS EL PASO

89.5

95.0

92.0

TEXAS TECH

91.0

91.5

91.5

TOLEDO

106.0

98.5

102.0

TROY

90.5

84.5

87.5

TULANE

90.0

93.5

91.5

TULSA

84.5

89.5

87.0

UAB

103.0

99.0

101.0

UCLA

110.5

108.5

109.5

UNLV

87.5

83.0

85.5

UTAH

102.5

109.0

105.5

UTAH STATE

102.5

107.5

105.0

VANDERBILT

79.5

93.5

86.5

VIRGINIA

103.5

99.5

101.5

VIRGINIA TECH

101.0

117.0

109.0

WAKE FOREST

89.5

86.5

88.0

WASHINGTON

94.0

104.5

99.5

WASHINGTON STATE

91.5

100.5

95.5

WEST VIRGINIA

108.5

96.5

102.5

WESTERN MICHIGAN

98.5

99.0

98.5

WISCONSIN

118.0

111.0

114.5

WYOMING

86.5

94.5

90.5

 

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