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Power
Ratings and NCAAF
Philosophy
There
are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football
handicapping from NFL handicapping. For starters, action on
college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated
bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys," who
often possess some insight or kernel of information that may
provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced
handicappers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game,
as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on
a marquee NFL game. For that reason, bookmakers usually move
college football lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In
general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line, and when
it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.
While
number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed
analysis is always an essential tool for college football
handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which
compliments the "science". The successful handicapper
understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors
which follows should also be considered before making a play.
Key Numbers: Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key
numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as
sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL.
College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often
as they do in NFL games.
Blowouts: We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but
lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the
college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college
totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress
those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Other
coaches feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing
all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of
unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college
"O/U" numbers more quickly than they move NFL
totals.
Personnel: It's also the nature of college football that personnel change
every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and
leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially
in September and early October when the season is still young.
There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly
it involves players of established ability moving from team to
team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.
Injuries: By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a
comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure,
there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as
"doubtful" have played while those regarded as
"probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate.
On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce
the status of injured or disciplined football players. This
vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in
college football handicapping.
The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the
public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college
football game. Clearly, understanding the differences between
college football handicapping and NFL handicapping is essential to
winning.
Power Ratings:
True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly
weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every
aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR
calculations must be very responsive or they become old news
before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to
judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any
given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and
should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as
trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to
obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams
strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or
front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We
use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this
information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain
winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our
Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on
teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If
you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can
always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can
subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that
winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.
To
make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the
Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating
and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a
HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points,
110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or
a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our
preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the
Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there
is at least a 2 point overlay.
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