Sportrends  
Software Overview
Subscribe/Order
Download Software
Download Stats
Free Software
Late Phone Service
Free Daily Picks
Team Stats
Vegas Odds
Sports Links
Advertising
Contact Us
Home Page
Team Stats

College Football: Team Power Ratings for BOWL Games

Power Ratings and NCAAF Philosophy

There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football handicapping from NFL handicapping. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys," who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced handicappers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line, and when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.

While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college football handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.

Key Numbers: Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL games.

Blowouts: We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Other coaches feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college "O/U" numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.

Personnel: It's also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.

Injuries: By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as "doubtful" have played while those regarded as "probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football handicapping.

The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. Clearly, understanding the differences between college football handicapping and NFL handicapping is essential to winning.

Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HFA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.

Team Name

Final H PR

Final A PR

Final Overall PR

AIR FORCE

103.5

102.5

102.5

AKRON

90.0

89.5

89.5

ALABAMA

111.5

134.0

122.5

ARIZONA

100.5

94.5

97.5

ARIZONA STATE

106.5

95.5

101.0

ARKANSAS

106.0

113.0

109.5

ARKANSAS STATE

100.5

86.5

93.5

ARMY

80.5

96.5

88.5

AUBURN

96.5

117.0

106.5

BALL STATE

95.5

96.0

96.0

BAYLOR

104.5

118.5

111.5

BOISE STATE

109.5

113.0

111.5

BOSTON COLLEGE

93.5

97.5

95.5

BOWLING GREEN

95.5

105.5

100.5

BUFFALO

100.5

87.5

94.0

BYU

117.5

102.5

110.0

CALIFORNIA

113.5

99.5

106.5

CENTRAL FLORIDA

96.5

90.5

93.5

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

96.5

101.5

99.0

CINCINNATI

106.5

90.5

98.5

CLEMSON

113.5

120.5

116.5

COLORADO

85.0

95.5

90.5

COLORADO STATE

88.5

108.5

98.5

CONNECTICUT

98.5

96.5

97.5

DUKE

89.5

102.5

96.5

EAST CAROLINA

90.5

100.5

95.5

EASTERN MICHIGAN

79.0

76.0

77.5

FLORIDA

98.5

110.0

104.5

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

93.5

86.0

89.5

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

91.5

101.0

96.0

FLORIDA STATE

108.5

107.0

107.5

FRESNO STATE

77.0

85.5

81.5

GEORGIA

109.5

103.5

106.5

GEORGIA TECH

107.0

90.5

98.5

HAWAII

75.5

81.5

78.5

HOUSTON

100.5

117.0

108.5

IDAHO

80.5

91.0

85.5

ILLINOIS

95.0

100.5

97.5

INDIANA

93.0

106.5

100.0

IOWA

104.5

105.5

105.0

IOWA STATE

102.5

88.5

95.5

KANSAS

64.5

80.5

72.5

KANSAS STATE

84.5

106.5

95.5

KENT STATE

92.0

80.5

86.5

KENTUCKY

89.0

97.0

93.0

LOUISIANA TECH

119.5

109.0

114.5

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE

81.5

101.5

91.5

LOUISIANA-MONROE

89.0

86.5

87.5

LOUISVILLE

105.5

100.5

103.0

LSU

100.5

115.0

107.5

MARSHALL

107.5

99.0

103.5

MARYLAND

90.0

90.5

90.5

MEMPHIS

105.0

104.5

105.0

MIAMI

98.0

102.5

100.0

MIAMI (OHIO)

87.5

87.5

87.5

MICHIGAN

111.5

119.5

115.5

MICHIGAN STATE

112.5

100.0

106.5

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

89.5

97.5

93.5

MINNESOTA

93.5

106.0

100.0

MISSISSIPPI

119.5

108.0

113.5

MISSISSIPPI STATE

100.0

117.5

108.5

MISSOURI

88.0

100.5

94.5

NAVY

112.0

110.0

111.0

NEBRASKA

91.0

109.5

100.5

NEVADA

92.5

101.5

97.0

NEW MEXICO

86.5

93.0

90.0

NEW MEXICO STATE

70.5

77.0

74.0

NORTH CAROLINA

115.5

111.0

113.5

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

100.0

95.5

98.0

NORTH TEXAS

89.5

74.5

82.5

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

94.5

105.5

100.5

NORTHWESTERN

101.5

98.5

100.0

NOTRE DAME

115.5

108.5

112.0

OHIO

100.5

91.5

96.0

OHIO STATE

111.5

127.5

119.5

OKLAHOMA

118.0

121.5

119.5

OKLAHOMA STATE

94.5

110.5

102.5

OREGON

99.5

105.5

102.5

OREGON STATE

80.0

82.0

81.0

PENN STATE

108.0

87.5

97.5

PITTSBURGH

98.0

104.5

101.5

PURDUE

86.0

100.5

93.5

RICE

60.5

96.5

78.5

RUTGERS

84.0

92.5

88.5

SAN DIEGO STATE

113.0

111.5

112.5

SAN JOSE STATE

92.0

87.5

89.5

SOUTH CAROLINA

93.0

95.5

94.5

SOUTH FLORIDA

116.0

103.5

109.5

SOUTHERN CAL

107.5

105.0

106.5

SOUTHERN METHODIST

95.0

74.0

84.5

SOUTHERN MISS

99.0

128.0

113.5

STANFORD

115.5

116.0

115.5

SYRACUSE

100.5

84.0

92.0

TCU

113.0

102.5

107.5

TEMPLE

113.5

99.5

106.5

TENNESSEE

115.5

118.0

116.5

TEXAS

110.0

83.5

96.5

TEXAS A&M

106.0

108.5

107.5

TEXAS EL PASO

83.0

79.5

81.5

TEXAS TECH

102.5

104.0

103.5

TOLEDO

103.5

104.5

104.0

TROY

84.5

90.5

87.5

TULANE

90.5

79.5

85.0

TULSA

90.0

103.5

96.5

UAB

101.5

99.0

100.5

UCLA

104.5

110.5

107.5

UNLV

82.5

90.0

86.0

UTAH

104.0

115.0

109.5

UTAH STATE

112.0

101.0

106.5

VANDERBILT

93.5

97.0

95.5

VIRGINIA

94.5

95.5

94.5

VIRGINIA TECH

102.0

108.5

105.0

WAKE FOREST

92.0

88.5

90.5

WASHINGTON

110.0

111.0

110.5

WASHINGTON STATE

109.5

99.5

104.5

WEST VIRGINIA

119.5

103.5

111.5

WESTERN MICHIGAN

104.5

106.0

105.5

WISCONSIN

111.5

109.5

110.5

WYOMING

85.0

81.5

83.5

 

Previous Page
Order | Software Overview | Free Software | Download Stats | Free Software |Premium Internet Service | Free Daily Picks
Team Stats | Vegas Odds | Sports Links | Advertising | Contact Us | Home

1987 Sportrends Inc. 1987 College and Pro Football Prophet. All rights reserved. No portion of this website may be reproduced or redistributed without prior express written consent of Sportrends, Inc. Any use of this information in violation of any federal, state or local laws is strictly prohibited.