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College Basketball: 2010 Team Power Ratings End

Power Ratings and NCAAB Philosophy

In terms of sheer numbers, no sport matches the opportunity, intrigue, depth of quality, or endless variety involved, as with college basketball handicapping. Nearly every day of the week, from mid-November through March, handicappers and sportsbooks match bankrolls on the hardwood fortunes of over 300 teams, in more than a dozen conferences.

While number crunching via power ratings are a must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college basketball handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art" which compliments the "science". The successful handicapper understands that subjective analysis of a number of other factors which follows should also be considered before making a play.

Bad Lines: Competition all but mandates that a sportsbook posts lines on over 200 teams, as compared to 30 in the NBA. For handicappers, it's a lot easier to find a bad number among 100 games than it is to find one among 13 or 14.

Home Court: Sure, the home court is a factor in NBA play but it's the tiresome travel associated with getting to a road game that puts the visiting team at a disadvantage in the pro ranks. For that reason, NBA spreads are affected more by schedule than by actual home court then in college.

Road Trips: Since NCAA teams only play about 30 games a year, lengthy road trips aren't a factor in college play. Nevertheless, with its requisite contingent of chanting and, sign-waving students, the home court really does matter in college basketball handicapping. In fact, the home court can be such an advantage that there may be as much as a 10-point swing in point spreads.

Motivation: A shorter schedule and more heated rivalries, particularly within conferences or states, all but guarantees that emotion, especially when you're dealing with impressionable teenagers, will play a greater role in college basketball than it does in the NBA. For that reason, assessing a team's motivation can be a crucial factor in college basketball handicapping.

Revenge: Another factor unique to college basketball is revenge. A team that lost to an opponent once often is troublesome to tame the second time around. This is a scenario that plays itself out in conference play quite often.

Freshmen: No sport is more affected by a single player than basketball, every new addition freshman, junior college or transfer--has the opportunity to alter the dynamic of the team.

Power Ratings: True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or they become old news before you get a chance to use them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point accuracy the relative strengths of teams in any given sports event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and should be utilized with many other handicapping tools such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive index along with each teams strength of opposition (SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We use linear regression analysis to calculate and integrate all this information into an overall power rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone software package to confirm, rather than just rely on teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If you like our approach but don't have the time or energy, you can always purchase our sports handicapping software or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory service and get that winning edge over the uninformed handicapper.

To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 = 113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by 5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0 + 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating + 3 for HCA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point overlay.                                         1. Always make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off.
2. Never play a game with a double digit line.
3. Pass games where the team with lower PR is laying pts. There must be at least a 1 point differential
for a team with a higher PR to lay points.
4.  We feel injuries are irrelevant. The oddsmakers take into account injuries and the publics perception of this and adjust the lines accordingly.

Team Name

Number of Games - Home

Number of Games - Away

Final H PR

Final A PR

Final Overall PR

KANSAS

17

11

110.0

116.0

113.0

BYU

13

15

112.0

111.0

111.5

DUKE

24

11

115.5

106.0

110.5

KENTUCKY

19

11

109.0

111.5

110.5

SYRACUSE

16

12

109.0

112.5

110.5

BAYLOR

13

14

110.5

108.5

109.5

KANSAS STATE

18

12

107.5

111.0

109.5

BUTLER

18

17

107.0

111.5

109.0

WEST VIRGINIA

19

14

108.0

108.5

108.5

UTAH STATE

08

07

111.5

104.5

108.0

CORNELL

09

17

107.5

108.5

108.0

CALIFORNIA

17

14

109.0

105.0

107.0

OHIO STATE

21

11

109.0

105.0

107.0

WISCONSIN

17

10

104.5

109.5

107.0

TEMPLE

19

12

105.0

108.0

106.5

TEXAS

16

13

109.5

103.5

106.5

SAN DIEGO STATE

12

18

109.0

104.5

106.5

DAYTON

15

16

107.5

105.5

106.5

UNLV

17

11

103.5

108.5

106.5

GEORGETOWN

16

14

105.0

108.5

106.5

VILLANOVA

16

12

106.5

107.0

106.5

XAVIER

19

13

108.0

104.5

106.5

NEW MEXICO

17

12

102.5

107.5

105.5

PURDUE

19

11

105.5

106.5

105.5

TEXAS A&M

12

15

105.0

106.0

105.5

WASHINGTON

15

14

109.0

102.5

105.5

NORTHERN IOWA

15

14

105.0

106.5

105.5

VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

10

10

109.5

102.0

105.5

MISSOURI

13

12

104.5

105.5

105.0

OLD DOMINION

08

13

106.5

103.5

105.0

MARYLAND

13

11

106.0

103.0

104.5

MICHIGAN STATE

17

14

102.5

106.5

104.5

MISSISSIPPI STATE

15

13

103.5

105.5

104.5

PITTSBURGH

15

12

106.5

102.0

104.5

TENNESSEE

16

15

106.5

102.5

104.5

TEXAS EL PASO

13

11

102.5

107.0

104.5

MARQUETTE

14

14

103.0

105.5

104.5

VANDERBILT

13

11

103.5

104.5

104.0

GEORGIA TECH

12

15

102.5

104.0

103.5

MINNESOTA

14

15

106.5

101.0

103.5

OKLAHOMA STATE

13

13

106.5

100.5

103.5

RICHMOND

11

17

100.5

106.0

103.5

WICHITA STATE

11

12

105.5

101.5

103.5

ARIZONA STATE

14

12

101.5

104.5

103.0

NOTRE DAME

15

12

104.0

101.5

103.0

HARVARD

10

11

105.5

100.5

103.0

MEMPHIS

11

11

103.5

101.0

102.5

OHIO

09

14

101.5

102.5

102.5

PRINCETON

08

13

102.5

102.5

102.5

RHODE ISLAND

12

14

101.5

104.5

102.5

CLEMSON

14

10

102.5

101.0

102.0

HOUSTON

09

13

103.5

100.5

102.0

FLORIDA

15

11

101.5

102.5

102.0

MISSISSIPPI

15

11

98.5

105.5

102.0

ILLINOIS STATE

11

13

102.5

101.0

102.0

FLORIDA STATE

12

11

99.5

103.5

101.5

ILLINOIS

16

14

98.5

103.5

101.5

LOUISVILLE

11

13

100.0

103.5

101.5

CONNECTICUT

15

12

101.5

101.5

101.5

UAB

14

09

103.0

100.5

101.5

KENT STATE

10

12

100.0

102.5

101.5

ALABAMA

13

13

99.0

102.5

100.5

DETROIT

13

14

98.5

103.0

100.5

USC

13

13

98.5

102.5

100.5

SOUTHERN MISS

09

10

99.5

101.5

100.5

TULSA

11

10

102.5

98.5

100.5

VIRGINIA TECH

14

11

101.5

100.5

100.5

AKRON

13

11

96.5

104.5

100.5

PACIFIC

09

11

96.5

104.5

100.5

MIAMI

11

13

100.0

100.0

100.0

NORTH CAROLINA

13

16

98.0

102.0

100.0

WAKE FOREST

12

14

99.0

101.0

100.0

ST. JOHN'S

12

15

96.5

103.0

100.0

WILLIAM & MARY

06

11

98.5

101.5

100.0

SAN JOSE STATE

07

06

100.5

97.5

99.5

SETON HALL

13

12

98.5

101.5

99.5

SAINT LOUIS

14

12

100.0

99.5

99.5

ARIZONA

16

12

97.5

100.5

99.0

CINCINNATI

14

15

97.5

100.5

99.0

GEORGIA

12

14

102.0

95.5

99.0

IOWA STATE

13

13

96.0

102.0

99.0

MICHIGAN

16

12

98.5

99.5

99.0

OREGON STATE

11

13

96.5

100.0

98.5

TEXAS TECH

12

15

98.5

99.0

98.5

MIAMI (OHIO)

12

12

98.5

98.5

98.5

CREIGHTON

10

13

97.5

99.5

98.5

BRADLEY

09

14

96.5

101.0

98.5

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

10

12

98.5

98.5

98.5

WESTERN MICHIGAN

10

13

100.0

96.0

98.0

BOSTON COLLEGE

16

10

97.5

97.5

97.5

SOUTHERN METHODIST

09

09

95.0

99.5

97.5

SOUTH CAROLINA

11

13

97.5

97.0

97.5

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

11

16

93.5

100.5

97.5

NORTHWESTERN

14

12

99.0

96.5

97.5

UCLA

15

13

94.0

101.0

97.5

VIRGINIA

12

13

97.5

97.5

97.5

SOUTH FLORIDA

17

11

99.0

96.0

97.5

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

09

12

98.0

97.5

97.5

NEW MEXICO STATE

07

12

100.5

95.5

97.5

CS FULLERTON

05

08

95.5

100.0

97.5

CHARLOTTE

12

11

98.0

97.0

97.5

PROVIDENCE

12

13

94.5

99.5

97.5

AUBURN

09

11

99.5

95.0

97.0

GEORGE MASON

10

07

98.0

96.0

97.0

GEORGE WASHINGTON

13

11

95.5

99.0

97.0

INDIANA STATE

10

14

97.0

97.0

97.0

COLORADO

11

13

97.5

95.5

96.5

COLORADO STATE

10

13

100.5

92.0

96.5

STANFORD

12

15

97.5

95.5

96.5

OKLAHOMA

12

13

98.5

94.0

96.5

PENN STATE

13

12

91.5

101.5

96.5

UTAH

14

11

96.5

96.5

96.5

DRAKE

12

10

95.0

97.5

96.5

FRESNO STATE

09

07

101.0

91.0

96.0

NEBRASKA

11

14

95.5

96.5

96.0

EASTERN MICHIGAN

08

09

96.5

95.5

96.0

LONG BEACH STATE

06

14

94.5

97.5

96.0

ARKANSAS

13

09

94.5

96.0

95.5

SANTA BARBARA

07

08

94.5

96.5

95.5

WASHINGTON STATE

11

12

94.0

94.5

94.5

BOWLING GREEN

09

12

96.5

92.5

94.5

BALL STATE

10

10

96.5

92.5

94.5

DUQUESNE

08

13

94.0

95.0

94.5

JAMES MADISON

04

09

91.5

96.5

94.5

ST. BONAVENTURE

10

11

94.5

94.0

94.5

OREGON

12

12

92.5

95.5

94.0

DEPAUL

13

14

92.0

96.0

94.0

TCU

10

14

90.5

97.0

93.5

LA SALLE

10

12

93.5

94.0

93.5

SAINT JOSEPH'S

10

14

94.0

92.5

93.5

RUTGERS

10

13

95.5

89.0

92.5

LOYOLA OF CHICAGO

10

12

92.5

92.5

92.5

UNC WILMINGTON

08

07

88.5

97.0

92.5

YALE

07

11

93.5

92.5

92.5

IOWA

15

12

92.0

91.5

91.5

TULANE

10

10

90.5

92.5

91.5

MASSACHUSETTS

10

14

89.5

93.0

91.5

EVANSVILLE

10

09

89.5

92.0

91.0

UC IRVINE

07

06

92.0

90.5

91.0

BROWN

08

11

84.5

96.0

90.5

LSU

12

12

92.5

88.5

90.5

WYOMING

12

10

90.5

89.0

90.0

EAST CAROLINA

10

10

85.5

93.5

89.5

INDIANA

13

11

91.5

88.0

89.5

RICE

08

12

87.5

91.5

89.5

COLUMBIA

07

09

85.0

92.5

88.5

PENNSYLVANIA

10

10

90.5

86.5

88.5

AIR FORCE

08

12

84.5

91.5

88.0

HAWAII

07

05

89.5

84.5

87.0

TOLEDO

10

12

84.5

83.5

84.5

DARTMOUTH

07

09

86.0

81.5

83.5

     

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