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Power
Ratings and NCAAB Philosophy
In
terms of sheer numbers, no sport matches the
opportunity, intrigue, depth of quality, or endless
variety involved, as with college basketball
handicapping. Nearly every day of the week, from
mid-November through March, handicappers and sportsbooks
match bankrolls on the hardwood fortunes of over 300 teams, in
more than a dozen conferences.
While number crunching via power ratings are a
must, detailed analysis is always an essential tool for college basketball
handicapping. There is a certain degree of "art"
which compliments the
"science". The successful handicapper
understands that subjective analysis of a number of
other factors which follows should also be considered
before making a play.
Bad
Lines: Competition all but mandates that a
sportsbook posts lines on over 200 teams, as compared
to 30 in the NBA. For handicappers, it's a lot easier to
find a bad number among 100 games than it is to find one
among 13 or 14.
Home Court: Sure, the home court is a factor in
NBA play but it's the tiresome travel associated with
getting to a road game that puts the visiting team at a
disadvantage in the pro ranks. For that reason, NBA
spreads are affected more by schedule than by actual
home court then in college.
Road Trips: Since NCAA teams only play about 30 games a year,
lengthy road trips aren't a factor in college play.
Nevertheless, with its requisite contingent of chanting
and,
sign-waving students, the home court really does matter
in college basketball handicapping. In fact, the home
court can be such an advantage that there may be as much
as a 10-point swing in point spreads.
Motivation: A shorter schedule and more heated rivalries,
particularly within conferences or states, all but
guarantees that emotion, especially when you're dealing
with impressionable teenagers, will play a greater role
in college basketball than it does in the NBA. For that
reason, assessing a team's motivation can be a crucial
factor in college basketball handicapping.
Revenge: Another factor unique to college basketball is
revenge. A team that lost to an opponent once often is
troublesome to tame the second time around. This is a
scenario that plays itself out in conference play quite
often.
Freshmen: No sport is more affected
by a single player than basketball, every new addition
freshman, junior college or transfer--has the
opportunity to alter the dynamic of the team.
Power Ratings:
True Power Ratings are purely objective and a deadly weapon
in any handicapper's arsenal. They are the key to every
aspect of statistical analysis. No emotion or bias is
involved. PR calculations must be very responsive or
they become old news before you get a chance to use
them. Our PR method allows us to judge, with pin point
accuracy
the relative strengths of teams in any given sports
event. PR's are an exceptional handicapping tool and
should be utilized with many other handicapping tools
such as trend, statistical and fundamental analysis. Our
first step is to obtain a total Offensive/Defensive
index along with each teams strength of opposition
(SOS). We then logarithmically increment or front-load
our PR's to reflect each teams recent performance. We
use linear regression analysis to calculate and
integrate all this information into an overall power
rating. Our aim is to obtain winners via Power Ratings
and using other tools contained in our Prophet Zone
software package to confirm, rather than just rely on
teams via an RPI or BCS rating system. If
you like our approach but don't have the time or energy,
you can always purchase our sports handicapping software
or you can subscribe to our premium sports advisory
service and get that winning edge over the uninformed
handicapper.
To make predictions for scheduled upcoming games, simply compare
the Home Team's Power Rating to that of the Away Team's
Power Rating and add 3 points for the home team
advantage. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating
of 110.7 would be favored by 17.2 points, 110.7 + 3 =
113.7 over a VISITING team having a rating of 96.5. Or a
VISITING team with a rating of 91.0 would be favored by
5 points over a HOME team having a rating of 83.0, 83.0
+ 3 = 86.0. Our preference is the Overall Power Rating +
3 for HCA. Use the Home/Away Power Ratings to confirm
the Overall PR. Make sure there is at least a 2 point
overlay.
1.
Always make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip
off.
2. Never play a game with a double digit line.
3. Pass games where the team with lower PR is laying
pts. There must be at least a 1 point differential
for a team with a higher PR to lay points.
4. We feel
injuries are irrelevant. The oddsmakers take into
account injuries and the publics perception of this and
adjust the lines accordingly.
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