Major League Baseball: Projected Money Lines Ends for 2011  

One of the most important tasks the handicapper undertakes is that of analyzing line movement -- when is it moving, how much and most importantly, why? Let's break it down into three categories: early, normal, and very late moves.

The first people to get a crack at the early or opening lines are big time bettors. They generally act as a good indicator of which direction lines will continue to move, allowing the educated bettor to get the best lines available.

Next we have the normal line moves, which occur from the end of the early period, until perhaps an hour or two before game time. These moves again occur exclusively because of money, but it is a different type of money. This is where the public is influential – Normal line moves are very important to track, because they offer a decent indicator of which side the public is betting on.

Late line moves are those in the timeframe immediately preceding game time and are influenced by "Betting Syndicates" or so called “Wiseguys”. When lines move off of key numbers, somebody knows something about this game that is not necessarily available to the general public.

Often very late line moves go in the opposite direction of earlier moves. These are moves that we generally respect and pay very close attention to.

Quite often if the line moved a point or more towards the side you like, it is too late. The value is already gone from that side, and the house beats the player more often than not.

Even though issues such as power rankings, trends and injuries are an important part of the handicapping process, there is no more significant factor than anticipating where the money will go on any particular game.

When handicapping baseball you are always looking for value - is the price on today's game worthy of a selection. Quite often the inexperienced handicapper does not recognize value and always seems to jump on the wrong side. It is the oddsmaker's job to confuse the general public into thinking he is getting a good team at a cheap price, when in fact the public has been duped into playing a team where the ML is way out of line. Obviously there are situations and circumstances surrounding such teams and players that are not readily made available to the general public and that is why at times lines look so enticing. It is therefore important to compare our projected ML to the oddsmaker's posted lines before making any plays.

• When comparing our projected money lines to the oddsmaker's posted lines there needs to be at least a 25-cent differential or overlay in which the oddsmakers ML's are moving in the opposite direction to our lines. 

• Make sure each pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings.

• Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175.

• Never bet on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak.

• Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.

• Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game.

EX: Houston's published ML - 170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is - 120 and our ML is - 150, play is on Boston's opponent.

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