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One of the most
important tasks the handicapper undertakes is that of analyzing
line movement -- when is it moving, how much and most
importantly, why? Let's break it down into three categories:
early, normal, and very late moves.
The first people to get
a crack at the early or opening lines are big time
bettors. They generally act as a good indicator of which direction
lines will continue to move, allowing the educated bettor to get
the best lines available.
Next we have the normal line moves, which occur from the end of the
early period, until perhaps an hour or two before game time. These
moves again occur exclusively because of money, but it is a
different type of money. This is where the public is influential
– Normal line moves are very important to track, because they
offer a decent indicator of which side the public is betting on.
Late line moves are those in
the timeframe immediately preceding game time and are influenced
by "Betting Syndicates" or so called “Wiseguys”.
When lines move off of key numbers, somebody knows something about
this game that is not necessarily available to the general public.
Often very late line moves go in the opposite direction of earlier
moves. These are moves that we generally respect and pay very
close attention to.
Quite often if the line moved a point or more towards the side you
like, it is too late. The value is already gone from that side,
and the house beats the player more often than not.
Even though issues such
as power rankings, trends and injuries are an important
part of the handicapping process, there is no more significant
factor than anticipating where the money will go on any particular
game.
When handicapping
baseball you are always looking for value - is the price on
today's game worthy of a selection. Quite often the inexperienced
handicapper does not recognize value and always seems to jump on
the wrong side. It is the oddsmaker's job to confuse the general
public into thinking he is getting a good team at a cheap price,
when in fact the public has been duped into playing a team where
the ML is way out of line. Obviously there are situations and
circumstances surrounding such teams and players that are not readily made
available to the general public and that is why at times lines look so
enticing. It is therefore important to compare our projected ML to
the oddsmaker's posted lines before making any plays.
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When comparing our projected money lines to the
oddsmaker's posted lines there needs to be at least a 25-cent
differential or overlay in which the oddsmakers ML's are moving in the opposite direction to our
lines.
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Make sure each pitcher
has pitched at least 20 innings.
-
Never bet on a team
favorite in which you must lay over -175.
-
Never
bet on teams that are on a 2
game or more losing
streak.
-
Never bet against a
team on a 2 game winning streak or more.
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Try to stay away from teams
traveling long distances in their first game.
EX:
Houston's published ML - 170 and our ML -130, play is on Houston. If Boston's published ML is - 120 and our ML
is - 150, play is on Boston's opponent.
|
Team
|
Pitcher
|
Record
|
IP
|
Proj ML
|
Open ML
|
W/L Streak
|
Last 10
|
|
STL
|
Blake Hawksworth
|
(4-6, 5.23)
|
67.0
|
|
|
Won 1
|
6-4
|
|
NYM
|
R.A. Dickey
|
(6-4, 2.55)
|
84.2
|
-155
|
-145
|
Lost 1
|
3-7
|
|
DET
|
Rick Porcello
|
(4-8, 5.55)
|
84.1
|
|
|
Lost 3
|
3-7
|
|
TB
|
David Price
|
(13-5, 2.90)
|
127.1
|
-175
|
-250
|
Won 5
|
7-3
|
|
ATL
|
Derek Lowe
|
(10-8, 4.48)
|
124.2
|
|
|
Won 1
|
5-5
|
|
WAS
|
Scott Olsen
|
(2-2, 3.77)
|
43.0
|
-110
|
120
|
Lost 1
|
3-7
|
|
PIT
|
Paul Maholm
|
(6-8, 4.13)
|
120.0
|
|
|
Won 2
|
5-5
|
|
COL
|
Ubaldo Jimenez
|
(15-2, 2.75)
|
134.1
|
-210
|
-290
|
Lost 8
|
1-9
|
|
FLA
|
Anibal Sanchez
|
(7-6, 3.59)
|
115.1
|
|
|
Lost 2
|
6-4
|
|
SF
|
Madison Bumgarner
|
(4-2, 2.43)
|
40.2
|
-130
|
-150
|
Won 2
|
8-2
|
|
LA
|
Vicente Padilla
|
(4-3, 3.41)
|
68.2
|
|
|
Lost 1
|
5-5
|
|
SD
|
Mat Latos
|
(11-4, 2.48)
|
112.2
|
-150
|
-140
|
Won 1
|
7-3
|
|
NYY
|
Dustin Moseley
|
(0-0, 4.22)
|
N/A
|
|
|
Won 1
|
7-3
|
|
CLE
|
Mitch Talbot
|
(8-9, 4.08)
|
119.0
|
N/A
|
130
|
Lost 1
|
5-5
|
|
ARZ
|
Joe Saunders
|
(6-10, 4.62)
|
0.0
|
|
|
Lost 6
|
3-7
|
|
PHI
|
Kyle Kendrick
|
(6-4, 4.60)
|
115.1
|
-185
|
-160
|
Won 7
|
7-3
|
|
OAK
|
Vin Mazzaro
|
(6-2, 3.45)
|
70.1
|
|
|
Won 1
|
7-3
|
|
TEX
|
C.J. Wilson
|
(9-5, 3.03)
|
127.2
|
-145
|
-200
|
Lost 1
|
7-3
|
|
SEA
|
David Pauley
|
(0-2, 2.18)
|
20.2
|
|
|
Lost 3
|
3-7
|
|
CWS
|
Freddy Garcia
|
(9-4, 4.74)
|
104.1
|
-185
|
-170
|
Won 3
|
6-4
|
|
BAL
|
Brian Matusz
|
(3-11, 5.22)
|
110.1
|
|
|
Lost 5
|
2-8
|
|
KC
|
Kyle Davies
|
(5-6, 5.52)
|
107.2
|
-150
|
-135
|
Lost 4
|
3-7
|
|
