NBA: Team Offensive Final Efficiency Ratings & Matchup Analysis for 5/22/2013

With respect to evaluating team performance in Pro Basketball, we can all agree there are several ways to assess what stats are truly important. Our goal was to determine what stats are critical for analyzing teams from an offensive and defensive perspective. 

Based on statistical analyses, our studies reveal offense wins games more often then defense. Key factors for teams to win games are, field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounds and foul shots. Merely looking at commonly reported statistics in these areas help but fail to account for the reality that some teams play faster and some teams play slower.

While these are the four essential factors that decide winning and losing in the NBA, the factors do not carry equal weight. Each statistic measures a separate skill — there’s no reason that a team can’t shoot well, commit few turnovers, rebound a high percentage of its misses and make frequent trips to the free throw line. At the same time, a team can compensate for poor performance in one area by outstanding performance in another — hitting the offensive boards on a poor shooting night, for example.

Beyond power rankings, these factors can be used to help identify a team’s strategic strengths and weaknesses to make predictions for scheduled upcoming games.

To utilize our TOER System just simply look at the teams selected in the Picks column and make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off to give the lines a chance to settle out. Since the Line Value is dependant on the actual line, make sure the value found in the Line Value column is greater or less then 5, (the overlay value). A negative value will pick the away team while a positive value will pick the home team. The TOER system will automatically pass games with a line greater then 10.
We feel injuries are irrelevant. The oddsmakers take into account injuries and the publics perception of this and adjusts the lines accordingly.

We have used Linear Regression to calculate the Odds of a home or road team winning utilizing Margin of Victory (MOV). In any given match-up, try to find teams where the odds are very high to win Vs. teams having a poor chance of winning.

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