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With respect to evaluating team
performance in College Basketball, we can all agree there are several
ways to assess what stats are truly important. Our goal was to
determine what stats are critical for analyzing teams from an
offensive and defensive perspective.
Based on
statistical analyses, our studies reveal offense wins games more
often then defense. Key factors for teams to win games are, field
goal percentage, turnovers, rebounds and foul shots. Merely looking at commonly reported statistics in these areas help
but fail to account for the reality that some teams play faster
and some teams play slower.
While these are
the four essential factors that decide winning and losing in the
CBB, the factors do not carry equal weight. Each statistic
measures a separate skill — there’s no reason that a team
can’t shoot well, commit few turnovers, rebound a high
percentage of its misses and make frequent trips to the free throw
line. At the same time, a team can compensate for poor performance
in one area by outstanding performance in another — hitting the
offensive boards on a poor shooting night, for example.
Beyond power rankings, these factors can be used to help
identify a team’s strategic strengths and weaknesses
to make predictions for scheduled upcoming games.
To
utilize our TOER System just simply look at the teams selected in
the Picks column and make your wages 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip
off to give the lines a chance to settle out. Since the Line Value
is dependant on the actual line, make sure the value found in the
Line Value column is greater or less then 5, (the overlay value).
A negative value will pick the away team while a positive value
will pick the home team. The TOER system will automatically pass
games with a line greater then 10.
We feel injuries
are irrelevant. The oddsmakers take into account injuries and the
publics perception of this and adjusts
the lines accordingly.
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