|
Pitching is
definitely the most important weapon in a team’s arsenal. There
is a reason why the starting pitchers are always named well ahead
of game time. Professional handicappers will be the first to
tell you that a team can only go as far as their arms will take
them. The heart of most pitching staffs and winning bets are not
the starters but the relief pitchers. Paying attention to MLB
bullpens will increase your chances of winning at baseball
betting. If you look back at most successful baseball teams you
will discover that they almost all dominated due to a good
starting pitching staff and a stellar bullpen.
If you’re betting
on a team’s bullpen solely based on how they’ve done all season,
be careful. A bullpen is a sensitive unit that can change its
look, literally on a daily basis. To be a confident gambler
who’s looking to gain an edge on a wager you should also focus
on what the bullpen has done in the last 10 games and you can even
make a case for "micro-capping" their last 5 games.
The
reason we suggest you examine a bullpens performance over the last 10 and 5
games and not the entire season, is that some bullpens might have
given up many runs in a single game that may have superficially
skewed and inflated their numbers. We at Sportrends have always
felt the bullpens have been undervalued when setting betting lines
in baseball, and our studies on this subject has confirmed that
oddsmakers are still somewhat behind the 8 ball, but they are starting to
catch on quickly. We all know in baseball, betting lines have
always been based mostly on starting pitchers, while the bullpens
have been undervalued. For now though, we are confident that our
bullpen projected Run system will have another profitable
season. This system does not kick in until May 15 so
that the bullpens can accumulate at least a full month of actual data, but
it is always important to project which teams will have the best
bullpens in each league to be a successful handicapper.
When using our BPR System in
any given matchup, a play on the home team is generated when the
value is under 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be
expected to give up less runs then their opponents bullpen. A play on the
road team is warranted when
the value of home team is over 1, indicating the home teams bullpen will be
expected to give up more runs.
|
Time
|
ROT
|
Matchup
|
Records
|
BP
Proj Runs
|
|
12:10 PM ET
|
901
|
St. Louis
|
56-45 (22-29 V)
|
|
|
|
902
|
NY Mets
|
51-50 (31-17 H)
|
2.43
|
|
12:10 PM ET
|
913
|
Detroit
|
51-49 (16-32 V)
|
|
|
|
914
|
Tampa Bay
|
62-38 (29-20 H)
|
-0.56
|
|
12:35 PM ET
|
903
|
Atlanta
|
58-42 (24-29 V)
|
|
|
|
904
|
Washington
|
43-58 (26-22 H)
|
-0.82
|
|
3:10 PM ET
|
905
|
Pittsburgh
|
36-64 (13-38 V)
|
|
|
|
906
|
Colorado
|
51-50 (31-18 H)
|
1.33
|
|
3:45 PM ET
|
907
|
Florida
|
50-51 (22-25 V)
|
|
|
|
908
|
San Francisco
|
58-44 (30-19 H)
|
-5.00
|
|
6:35 PM ET
|
909
|
LA Dodgers
|
54-47 (22-26 V)
|
|
|
|
910
|
San Diego
|
59-40 (31-20 H)
|
-2.82
|
|
7:05 PM ET
|
911
|
Arizona
|
37-64 (13-35 V)
|
|
|
|
912
|
Philadelphia
|
55-46 (31-17 H)
|
5.15
|
|
7:05 PM ET
|
915
|
NY Yankees
|
64-36 (30-20 V)
|
|
|
|
916
|
Cleveland
|
42-59 (23-26 H)
|
-0.45
|
|
8:05 PM ET
|
917
|
Oakland
|
51-49 (21-27 V)
|
|
|
|
918
|
Texas
|
59-42 (35-21 H)
|
-1.08
|
|
8:10 PM ET
|
921
|
Seattle
|
39-63 (15-35 V)
|
|
|
|
922
|
Chi. White Sox
|
56-44 (30-19 H)
|
0.54
|
|
8:10 PM ET
|
919
|
Baltimore
|
31-70 (13-37 V)
|
|
|
|
920
|
Kansas City
|
42-59 (20-28 H)
|
9.30
|
|
