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One of the reasons
baseball is so profitable to an experienced sports handicapper, is
that it’s filled with numerous statistics not found in any other
sport. No other sport breaks it down with such detail indicating
which teams struggle with offensive and defensive inconsistencies
and provides a clearer view of starting pitcher and bullpen slumps
and flaws. Our analysis also
pinpoints when a team is starting to produce at a higher rate. The
system we introduce here represents a scientific approach to
handicapping. Our selection techniques were developed so the
handicapper can take advantage of formulas created which analyzes
the quality of starting pitchers along with its bullpen. It became
evident which teams get the best of a certain starting pitchers
and bullpens they face. Our formulas also place a great deal of
weight on the bullpen, by creating a bullpen rating. Of course to
produce an accurate rating is a very difficult since relief
pitchers are shuttled in and out of the bullpen very frequently.
Relief pitchers as we know are also traded, released or shipped to
minors. We also analyze team batting tendencies when facing
dominant left or right, handed hurlers and vice versa, when
pitchers may struggle against teams with predominantly left or
right handed batters. Our baseball
system handles a large number of team and pitching
offensive/defensive events, interacting factors and creates a
team, scoring index, along with a Money Line.
When handicapping
baseball you are always looking for value - is the price on
today's game worthy of a selection. Quite often the inexperienced
handicapper does not recognize value and always seems to jump on
the wrong side. It is the oddsmaker's job to confuse the general
public into thinking he is getting a good team at a cheap price,
when in fact the public has been duped into playing a team where
the ML is way out of line. Obviously there are situations and
circumstances surrounding such teams and players that are not
readily made available to the general public and that is why at
times lines look so enticing. It is therefore important to compare
our projected ML to the oddsmaker's posted lines before making any
plays.
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When comparing our
projected money lines to the oddsmaker's posted lines there
needs to be at least a 25-cent Differential or Overlay.
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Make sure a pitcher
has pitched at least 20 innings.
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Never bet on a team
favorite in which you must lay over -175.
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Never
bet on teams that are on a 2
game or more losing streak.
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Never bet against a
team on a 2 game winning streak or more.
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Try to stay away from
teams traveling long distances in their first game.
A
money line of (-1.25) indicates the Home team is a favorite,
while a (1.25) indicates the Road team is a favorite. As an
example, suppose WAS at home is facing the NYM's and the
Predicted ML is 2.25. This indicates the NYM's are an
overwhelming favorite at 2.25. Now suppose the Actual or
Offshore casino's ML for the NYM's is 1.50. This tells us that
the NYM's are a Road favorite having good value since we only
have to lay 1.50. To see if there is a play we need to
subtract the actual ML of 1.50 from the predicted ML 2.25
which gives us a differential of 75 cents which greater then
the 25 cent overlay required. Therefore, the NYM's becomes our
play. Of course the opposite scenario applies.
|
Team
|
Pitcher
|
Throws
|
ST/BP
Pitcher Ratings
|
Team
Bat Vs. L/R Ratings
|
Team
Pred Runs
|
Proj
M/L
|
Open
M/L
|
|
SEA
|
Felix
Hernandez
|
R
|
0.76
|
3.93
|
5.1
|
|
-141
|
|
CLE
|
Justin
Masterson
|
R
|
1.29
|
4.80
|
3.6
|
1.71
|
131
|
|
FLA
|
Anibal
Sanchez
|
R
|
0.90
|
5.09
|
5.9
|
|
114
|
|
CIN
|
Homer
Bailey
|
R
|
1.17
|
5.84
|
5.2
|
1.35
|
-119
|
|
LA
|
Vicente
Padilla
|
R
|
0.87
|
5.17
|
4.9
|
|
124
|
|
ATL
|
Jair
Jurrjens
|
R
|
0.94
|
5.49
|
4.8
|
1.03
|
-129
|
|
ARZ
|
Barry
Enright
|
R
|
0.93
|
4.98
|
4.2
|
|
178
|
|
WAS
|
Stephen
Strasburg
|
R
|
0.83
|
4.64
|
4.3
|
-1.09
|
-185
|
|
BAL
|
Jake
Arrieta
|
R
|
1.22
|
4.38
|
1.8
|
|
220
|
|
TB
|
Jeremy
Hellickson
|
R
|
0.41
|
5.74
|
7.0
|
-3.59
|
-230
|
|
DET
|
Armando
Galarraga
|
R
|
1.04
|
4.85
|
5.2
|
|
132
|
|
CWS
|
Freddy
Garcia
|
R
|
1.07
|
5.33
|
5.5
|
-1.19
|
-137
|
|
PIT
|
Jeff
Karstens
|
R
|
1.11
|
4.58
|
4.7
|
|
146
|
|
HOU
|
J.A.
Happ
|
L
|
1.04
|
4.54
|
5.1
|
-1.16
|
-151
|
|
NYY
|
A.J.
Burnett
|
R
|
0.78
|
6.27
|
7.0
|
|
-210
|
|
KC
|
Bryan
Bullington
|
R
|
1.11
|
4.77
|
3.7
|
2.63
|
200
|
|
OAK
|
Vin
Mazzaro
|
R
|
0.96
|
4.68
|
4.4
|
|
138
|
|
MIN
|
Kevin
Slowey
|
R
|
0.94
|
5.94
|
5.7
|
-1.67
|
-143
|
|
CHC
|
Ryan
Dempster
|
R
|
1.04
|
4.79
|
5.9
|
|
132
|
|
STL
|
Kyle
Lohse
|
R
|
1.24
|
5.22
|
5.4
|
1.25
|
-137
|
|
BOS
|
Daisuke
Matsuzaka
|
R
|
1.03
|
5.64
|
4.6
|
|
138
|
|
TEX
|
C.J.
Wilson
|
L
|
0.81
|
5.72
|
5.9
|
-1.68
|
-143
|
|
MLW
|
Manny
Parra
|
L
|
1.29
|
5.60
|
3.9
|
|
230
|
|
COL
|
Ubaldo
Jimenez
|
R
|
0.69
|
5.23
|
6.8
|
-2.44
|
-240
|
|
TOR
|
Ricky
Romero
|
L
|
0.88
|
5.70
|
6.1
|
|
128
|
|
ANA
|
Dan
Haren
|
R
|
1.08
|
4.83
|
4.2
|
1.96
|
-133
|
|
SD
|
Wade
LeBlanc
|
L
|
0.77
|
4.94
|
3.9
|
|
169
|
|
SF
|
Tim
Lincecum
|
R
|
0.79
|
5.37
|
4.1
|
-1.10
|
-176
|
|
PHI
|
Kyle
Kendrick
|
R
|
1.08
|
5.49
|
5.2
|
|
101
|
|
NYM
|
Mike
Pelfrey
|
R
|
0.94
|
4.76
|
5.1
|
1.02
|
-106
|
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